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11/3/09-11/8/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 49-19 SU (.721), 33-35 ATS (.485)
Last Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 1-3 ATS (.250)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 2-5 ATS (.286)

Thursday, November 5
TEMPLE (-14) by 19.72 over Miami, O. - The computer is 6-1 ATS on Temple games and 5-4 on Miami. Neither team has impressed on offense, but the Owls lead the conference in total defense.
Temple blew leads of 21-3 and 31-13 and ultimately needed an 18-yard FG with 3 seconds left to win 34-32. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, November 7
ARKANSAS (-4.5) by 8.81 over South Carolina - Arkansas boats the SEC's top passing offense while South Carolina is 2nd in pass defense. The computer is 8-0 SU, 4-3 ATS on Arkansas games. It's 8-1 SU, 4-4 ATS on SC games.
Arkansas won 33-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CINCINNATI (-12) by 12.55 over Connecticut - I actually like this pick better if dual-threat QB Zach Collaros plays instead of drop-back passer Tony Pike. Collaros has thrown 7 TD passes and 1 INT in place of the injured Pike and has led his team to a 17-point win at USF, a 31-point victory over Louisville, and a 21-point win at Syracuse. Collaros has completed nearly 75% of his passes and ran for 213 yards and 2 scores. The computer is 6-1 ATS with the Bearcats, 5-2 with the Huskies.
CIncinnati won 47-45. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oregon (-5.5) by 9.69 over STANFORD - Oregon's defense has allowed an average of just 11.6 points per game over the last 5 games while winning those contests by 14 points or more, including two road games. Stanford hasn't defeated anyone with a winning record. The computer is 5-3 ATS with both schools.
Stanford won 51-42. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

PITT (-21) by 25.64 over Syracuse - This looked bad for Syracuse even before the Orange's top receiver, Mike Williams, quit the team this week. Williams ranks 6th nationally in receiving yards per game and is a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award for the nation's top receiver.
Pitt won 37-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utep (-10.4) by 13.10 over TULANE - Other than a 1-point upset win at Army, Tulane has lost to all of its' FBS opponents by at least 21 points. UTEP loves to throw and Tulane ranks last in CUSA in opponent completion percentage, allowing an astonishing 72% completions.
Tulane won 45-38 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UCLA (-3.5) by 9.57 over Washington - Only 3.5 points at home for the Bruins? Washington has lost 9 of its last 10 road games by at least 6 points - only exception was last year's 3-point loss at Washington State.
UCLA won 24-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 51-12 SU (.810), 33-30 ATS (.524)
Last Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 4-3 ATS (.571)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Saturday, November 7
ALABAMA (-10) by 8.62 over Lsu - LSU allowed a total of 23 points to Florida and Auburn, two of the top offenses in the SEC. Indeed, the opening line quickly dropped to between 7.5 and 8 as this should be a defensive slugfest.
Alabama won 24-15. The computer won SU, won ATS.

ARIZONA (-31) by 27.47 over Washington State - The line has climbed since the opening, even though Arizona RB's Greg Nwoko and Nik Grigsby, the team's leading rusher, are both expected to sit out with injuries. Keola Antolin will likely get most of the work after rushing for 77 yards on 16 carries vs. UCLA last week. This is the second straight week that Wazzu opened as a 31-point underdog. Last week, I agreed with the computer that Notre Dame would not cover and we were correct. I'll give it another shot.
Arizona won 48-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

CLEMSON (-8.5) by 5.60 over Florida State - FSU defensive coordinator announced Tuesday that he will retire at the end of the season, so maybe that will help the defense play better. Florida State has allowed an average of 36.5 points per game in its last four outings. However, QB Christian Ponder has helped the 'Noles answer with 35 points per game. FSU tops the ACC in total offense. Clemson is 2nd total defense.
Clemson won 40-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA (-35) by 31.05 over Vanderbilt - The Gators have won the last two meetings by 28 and 27, but hasn't defeated the Commodores by more than that since the pre-Bobby Johnson days in 2001.
Florida won 27-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA TECH (-15) by 12.60 over Wake Forest - These teams haven't met since the Demon Deacons beat the Yellow Jackets 9-6 in the 2006 ACC Championship game.
Georgia Tech won 30-27 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

IOWA (-18) by 14.66 over Northwestern - Iowa's 4th quarter outburst in last week's win over Indiana produced its first win by more than 11 points since a 35-3 thumping of Iowa State in Week 2. Northwestern has only lost once by a margin that would cover this spread.
Northwestern won 17-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-11) by 7.55 over Navy - Dave Congrove points out in his pre-game column that the Midshipmen ended a 43-game losing streak to the Irish two years ago, and saw a frantic comeback fall short in a 27-21 loss last year. Navy ranks 3rd nationally in rushing offense and the Irish rank 50th in stopping the run. Navy has allowed 21.4 ppg while Notre Dame has scored 31.3 per game. Navy has scored 29.4 per game and Notre Dame has allowed 22.9 ppg.
Navy won 23-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 21-38 SU (.356), 32-27 ATS (.542)
Last Week: 1-4 SU (.200), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 3-1 SU (.750), 4-0 ATS (1.000)

Saturday, November 7
COLORADO by 2.96 over Texas A&M (-1) - The computer is just 3-5 ATS with A&M, but 5-3 with Colorado. The Buffs are last in the Big 12 in total offense and the Aggies are last in total defense.
Colorado won 35-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.

UNLV by 2.32 over Colorado State (-1.5) - The computer is a solid 8-1 SU with UNLV, but a dismal 5-4 with CSU. The Rams are 1-3 on the road this season while the Rebels' home record of 2-3 includes a 2-point loss to Oregon State. UNLV is 3rd in the conference in passing offense and Colorado State ranks last in pass defense.
UNLV won 35-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TULSA by 5.37 over Houston (-3) - Tough to buy this one. Tulsa is just 4-4 overall after 3 straight losses to Boise State, UTEP and SMU. TulsaWorld.com points out that Tulsa's four victories have come against Rice, New Mexico, Sam Houston State and Tulane. Those schools have a total of one win against Division I competition.
Houston won 46-45. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Louisiana-Monroe by 4.96 over NORTH TEXAS (-1) - The computer is 6-2 SU with UL-M and 7-1 with UNT. The Warhawks are 3-1 in conference play while the Mean Green is 1-4 after ending its streak of 15 straight Sun Belt losses with a 68-49 win over cellar-dweller Western Kentucky last week. North Texas is tops in the conference in rushing offense, but the Warhawks are 1st in rushing defense.
Louisiana-Monroe won 33-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.