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11/1/11-11/5/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 69-18 SU (.793), 49-38 ATS (.563)
This Week: 5-4 SU (.556), 4-5 ATS (.444)
PAST RECORDS

Tuesday, November 1
TOLEDO (-7) by 14.51 over Northern Illinois - The computer listed the Rockets as a 14.80-point favorite in this contest in the preseason and its margin has barely changed after two months of games. The computer is 4-3 ATS with Toledo and 3-4 with the Huskies.
Northern Illinois won 63-60. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Wednesday, November 2
Temple (-5) by 6.56 over Ohio - The computer's margin in favor of the Owls has risen by almost 4 points since the preseason forecast was released. The computer is 6-1 ATS with Temple, but just 2-5 with the Bobcats.
Ohio won 35-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, November 3
MIAMI, O. (-16.5) by 24.86 over Akron - The RedHawks are just 2-2 in the MAC, but only a half-game behind Temple in the East division race and they visit the Owls next week. Akron has won just 1 of its last 18 games vs. FBS teams. The computer is only a combined 6-9 ATS with these teams, but many of the losses were against their nonconference slates.
Miami, Ohio won 35-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Friday, November 4
KENT STATE (-2) by 3.64 over Central Michigan - Kent State is 1-1 in home MAC games after holding Miami (Ohio) to 9 points in a 9-3 loss and Bowling Green to 15 in a 27-15 win. It will take defense for the Golden Flashes to win as they rank last on offense out of 120 FBS teams.
Kent State won 24-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 5
ALABAMA (-4.5) by 4.52 over Louisiana State - 'Bama ranks 1st on defense and LSU ranks 4th. 'Bama ranks 22nd on offense and LSU ranks 81st. The computer is 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS with the Tide. It's 8-0 SU, 7-0 ATS with the Tigers.
LSU won 9-6 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Southern Miss (-9.5) by 14.17 over EAST CAROLINA - The computer is 5-2 ATS with USM and 4-4 with ECU. The Golden Eagles boast Conference USA's 2nd-ranked offense and defense. The Pirates rank 6th on offense and 4th on defense.
Southern Miss won 48-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Michigan (-3.5) by 8.26 over IOWA - Iowa is 4-0 at home this year and 0-3 on the road. This game will mark the end of that perfect record in Kinnick Stadium. All 4 of Iowa's FBS victims have 4 or more losses.
Iowa won 24-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

IOWA STATE (-13.5) by 14.41 over Kansas - The Jayhawks have lost each of their last four games by 40 or more and allow an average of 49.5 points per game to rank last among all 120 FBS teams.
Iowa State won 13-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NAVY (-5) by 5.80 over Troy - Troy ranks 81st in stopping the run. Navy rank 5th in rushing offense. The computer is just 3-4 ATS with both teams.
Navy won 42-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 54-15 SU (.783), 30-39 ATS (.435)
This Week: 5-4 SU (.556), 5-4 ATS (.556)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, November 5
CALIFORNIA (-9.5) by 8.83 over Washington State - This game has been trending toward the Cougars since the start of the season and the computer is 5-2 ATS with WSU. 3 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by a TD or less.
Cal won 30-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MIAMI, FLA. (-16.5) by 11.67 over Duke - The computer has had this game in the 11.5 range since preseason. Duke is 2-0 on the road while Miami is 2-2 at home vs. FBS teams. 3 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 15 points or less. The computer is 5-2 ATS with the 'Canes but just 1-6 with the Blue Devils.
Miami, Fla. won 49-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Fiu (-3) by 2.89 over WESTERN KENTUCKY - The Hilltoppers have won 4 straight after winning just 4 of their previous 47. Momentum is on WKU's side as the Golden Panthers are 2-3 in their last five games after opening the season with three straight victories. The computer is 5-2 ATS with Western Kentucky this season and 34-10 SU with the Hilltoppers since they became a full-fledged FBS member in 2008.
Western Kentucky won 10-9. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

GEORGIA (-37) by 21.12 over New Mexico State - The Aggies have been in every game they've played and won at Minnesota earlier in the year. Georgia hasn't defeated any FBS team by more than 14 points.
Georgia won 63-16. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

HAWAII (-9) by 3.81 over Utah State - Hawaii is ranked 8th nationally in passing offense while Utah State ranks 6th nationally in rushing. The Aggies rank 22nd on defense while the Warriors rank 36th.
Utah State won 35-31. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-14) by 11.87 over Louisville - West Virginia leads the Big East in offense and is 3rd on defense. Louisville leads the conference in defense but is 7th (out of 8 teams) on offense. Inconsistent West Virginia has defeated UConn by 27, lost to the 'Cuse by 26 and had to rally to win by 10 at Rutgers. That inconsistency, combined with the Louisville's defense, should keep this game tighter than 2 TD's.
Louisville won 38-35. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

MARYLAND (-2.5) by 1.82 over Virginia - The computer is 6-1 ATS with Virginia and 5-2 with Maryland. The Cavs appear to have hit their stride while the Terps are winless vs. FBS teams since beating Miami (Fla.) in the opener.
Virginia won 31-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

NEBRASKA (-19) by 14.37 over Northwestern - Of the Wildcats' 5 losses, none have been my more than 18 points.
Northwestern won 28-25. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

TEXAS (-10) by 5.08 over Texas Tech - The computer is 5-2 ATS with the Longhorns and 4-3 with the Red Raiders. Last week's 41-7 Texas Tech home loss to Iowa State has all the evidence of an anomalie Each of the last 3 games in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.
Texas won 52-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 19-30 SU (.388), 23-26 ATS (.469)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 6-0 ATS (1.000)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, November 3
Tulsa by 3.65 over UCF (-3) - Central Florida ranks 3rd nationally on defense while Tulsa ranks 82nd. UCF averaged a paltry 19 points per game vs. Marshall, SMU and UAB while winning just one of those games. Tulsa is 4-0 in CUSA while averaging 36 points and a 23.5-point margin of victory in those games. The computer is 8-0 SU with Tulsa and 5-3 with UCF.
Tulsa won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, November 5
Utah by 0.01 over ARIZONA (-1.5) - The computer had the Utes winning this game by 0.23 in the preseason. The computer is 7-1 SU with 'Zona but just 3-5 with Utah.
Utah won 34-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

EASTERN MICHIGAN by 0.42 over Ball State (-3.5) - The Eagles' (5-3, 3-1) only conference loss was a 54-16 setback at Toledo (5-3, 4-0). Ball State (5-4, 3-2) was bombed 42-0 at home by Temple (5-3, 3-2) and lost 45-35 last week at Western Michigan (5-4, 3-2). The computer has just 2 SU losses with both teams.
Ball State won 33-31. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

KENTUCKY by 3.02 over Ole Miss (-2.5) - Both teams are looking for their first SEC win. The Rebels are 11th (out of 12 teams) in the SEC on offense and last on defense. Kentucky is last on offense and 9th on defense. The computer is 7-1 SU with the Wildcats and 6-2 with Ole Miss.
Kentucky won 30-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

N.C. STATE by 0.98 over North Carolina (-3.5) - I am personally surprised that the computer still has the Wolfpack winning, even though it listed them as preseason favorites in this game by over 9 points. The computer is 8-1 SU with the Tar Heels and 5-3 with the Wolfpack.
N.C. State won 13-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

RICE by 0.04 over Utep (-1.5) - UTEP has a statistical edge on both sides of the ball but the Owls are 2-1 at home, including a victory over Purdue. The only home loss was to Tulsa which is 4-0 in CUSA play. The computer is 8-0 SU with Rice and 6-2 with the Miners.
Rice won 41-37. The computer won SU, won ATS.