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10/28/08-11/02/08


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 8/28-9/1
Week 2: 9/4-9/6
Week 3: 9/11-9/13
Week 4: 9/17-9/20
Week 5: 9/25-9/27
Week 6: 9/30-10/4
Week 7: 10/7-10/11
Week 8: 10/16-10/18
Week 9: 10/21-10/26
Week 10: 10/28-11/2
Week 11: 11/4-11/8
Week 12: 11/11-11/15
Week 13: 11/18-11/22
Week 14: 11/25-11/29
Week 15: 12/3-12/6
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2008 Regular Season: 52-15 SU (.776), 34-33 ATS (.507)
Last Week: 7-2 SU (.750), 3-6 ATS (.333)
This Week: 5-3 SU (.625), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Saturday, November 1st
Tulsa (-7) by 10.24 over ARKANSAS - The Razorback's 67th-ranked defense has the unenviable task of stopping the No. 1 offense. The Golden Hurricane average 601.1 yards per game, which is nearly 45 more yards per game than the 2nd-ranked offensive unit for Texas Tech. Tulsa is one of just six teams averaging over 500 yards per game.
Arkansas won 30-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Missouri (-20) by 24.25 over BAYLOR - As we saw last week in a 58-0 win over Colorado, Missouri is head and shoulders above the bulk of the Big 12. In the two common opponent comparisons that exist, Baylor lost last week at Nebraska by 12 while Missouri won at Nebraska by 35 on October 4, and Baylor lost by 28 at Oklahoma State while Missouri lost to the Cowboys at home by 5.
Missouri won 31-28. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Boise State (-20.50) by 21.50 over NEW MEXICO STATE - It's a healthy spread for a road game, but Boise State is allowing just 11.3 points per game for the 4th-best average in the nation. The computer is 5-1 ATS with the Broncos, and 4-2 with the Aggies.
Boise State won 49-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Florida State (-1.5) by 4.61 over GEORGIA TECH - The Yellow Jackets are a one-trick pony - run, run, run - with twice as many rushing yards as passing. Florida State is 7th nationally in stopping the run. The 'Noles are also balanced on offense, averaging 3 more passing yards than rushing.
Georgia Tech won 31-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

ILLINOIS (-1.5) by 2.78 over Iowa - The Illini are 3-1 at home. Iowa is 1-2 on the road.
Illinois won 27-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

VIRGINIA (-1) by 3.68 over Miami, Fla. - You have to like 1 point for a home team that has caught fire with four straight wins, allowed a total of 33 points in four home games, and shutout two of its four home opponents.
Miami won 24-17 in overtime. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-16.5) by 21.39 over North Texas - Except for a 12-point loss to Louisiana-Monroe, all of North Texas' defeats have been by at least 28 points. The Mean Green have lost nine straight, tied with Washington for the longest losing streak in the nation. Their last win, though, came last season at home against Western Kentucky, 27-26. The computer is 8-0 SU, 4-2 ATS with the Hilltoppers. It is 8-0 SU, 3-5 ATS with North Texas as it has underestimated the size of the loss on four occasions, and over-stated it once.
North Texas won 51-40. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Tcu (-14) by 20.80 over UNLV - TCU has allowed more than 7 points in a game just twice all year - Stanford (14) and Oklahoma (35). The Horned Frogs have outscored their opponent by at least 17 points in six of their seven wins.
TCU won 44-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2008 Regular Season: 46-12 SU (.793), 32-26 ATS (.552)
Last Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 3-3 ATS (.500)
This Week: 4-1 SU (.800), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Saturday, November 1st
WESTERN MICHIGAN (-18) by 16.16 over Eastern Michigan - The annual battle hasn't been decided by this wide of a margin since 2002, and the Eagles won last year's game 19-2.
Western Michigan won 31-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

San Jose State (-16) by 12.97 over IDAHO - San Jose State has won the last three meetings against Idaho by 8, 15 and 12 - none of which would take care of the 16 points that they are favored by this week.
San Jose State won 30-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utah (-7) by 5.09 over NEW MEXICO - The Lobos have lost just one of their last 16 home games by more than 7 points and that was this year's season opener to TCU.

STANFORD (-30.5) by 19.45 over Washington State - I know this is an awful Washington State team, but Stanford has the PAC-10's 3rd-worst defense and hasn't beaten anyone by more than 13 points.
Stanford won 58-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Texas (-6) by 2.94 over TEXAS TECH - The computer is 5-1 ATS with the Red Raiders. The Red Raiders lead the nation in passing yards while Texas ranks 11th. However, Longhorn QB Colt MCCoy is 2nd nationally in pass efficiency while Texas Tech's Graham Harrell ranks 6th.Texas has won the last five meetings, and eight of the last nine. Texas Tech is 2-3 vs. Texas in the last five games played at Lubbock.
Texas Tech won 39-33. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

USC (-43) by 41.10 over Washington - The Huskies lost at Arizona by 34, and at home to Oklahoma by 41. Even the Trojans should have a difficult time winning by more than 43 points which they have only accomplished twice this year (at Virginia, and at Washington State). You can also hope that Ty Willingham's players will turn in an inspired performance after Monday's announcement that he is has been forced out, effective at the end of the year.
USC won 56-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2008 Regular Season: 26-41 SU (.388), 31-36 ATS (.463)
Last Week: 6-8 SU (.429), 7-7 ATS (.500)
This Week: 2-6 SU (.250), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Saturday, November 1st
Auburn by 6.04 over MISSISSIPPI (-6) - Auburn has won 4 in-a-row over Ole Miss, and 7 of the last 8 meetings. The computer is 6-2 SU with both teams.
Mississippi won 17-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Oregon by 3.88 over CALIFORNIA (-3) - These are two of the four teams in the PAC-10 that have one conference loss - Oregon State and USC are the others. The Ducks rank 1st in total offense in the PAC-10 while the Golden Bears rank 4th. Defensively, Cal ranks 6th and Oregon ranks 7th. Cal has won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
California own 26-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Central Michigan by 4.40 over INDIANA (-2) - The Chippewas will try to become the second MAC team to win at Indiana this season after Ball State beat the Hoosiers 42-20 on September 20. CMU's only losses this year have come at Georgia (56-17) and Purdue (32-25). Last week's 21-19 win over Northwestern was Indiana's first Big Ten win of the season (1-4), and the only time the Hoosiers scored more than 13 points in their last four games. Indiana is 3-0 all-time vs. Central Michigan, winning the last meeting 20-13 at Mount Pleasant in 2005.
Central Michigan won 37-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CONNECTICUT by 0.75 over West Virginia (-4) - Last year's co-champions are fighting for supremacy in the Big East again. UConn (6-2, 2-1) crushed Cincinnati 40-16 last week. West Virginia (5-2, 2-0) downed Auburn 34-17 on Thursday night. The Mountaineers are 4-0 against the Huskies.
West Virginia won 35-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Kentucky by 2.68 over MISSISSIPPI STATE (-3) -Kentucky has lost 3 of its' last 4 games after getting off to a 4-0 start, and was humiliated 63-5 at Florida last week for its' 22nd straight loss to the Gators. Mississippi State has won 2 of its' last 3 with the victories coming against Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee. The computer is a combined 13-3 SU with these teams, including 7-1 with the 'Cats.
Kentucky won 14-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Temple by 0.31 over NAVY (-7) - I don't know have a lot of faith in this computer pick. Navy has beaten the Owls three straight times, all by 11 points or more. Temple's last win over the Midshipmen came in 2001. Navy is the No. 2 team nationally in rushing offense, and Temple ranks 67th in rushing defense. The computer is just 4-4 in picking the winner of games involving the Middies, but it is 7-1 with Temple games.
Navy won 33-27 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

UTEP by 0.07 over Rice (-2) - Rice games are like ping-pong games as Rice has outscored its opposition 311-292 this year, but UTEP has been outscored 220-266. It comes as no surprise that Rice ranks 115th in total defense, and UTEP ranks 116th. The Owls rank 16th in total offense, and the Miners rank 56th. The computer is 7-1 SU, and 6-2 ATS on Rice games.
Rice won 49-44. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Tennessee by 1.19 over SOUTH CAROLINA (-6) - The computer is a combined 12-4 SU, 8-7 ATS with these teams. The Gamecocks (5-3, 2-3) had a four-game winning streak snapped in a home loss to LSU on Oct. 18 and hasn't played since then. The Volunteers (3-5, 1-3) are in danger of missing the bowl season altogether if they don't win this week.
South Carolina won 27-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.