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10/25/11-10/29/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 64-14 SU (.821), 45-33 ATS (.577)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 4-3 ATS (.571)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 29
OKLAHOMA STATE (-18) by 19.90 over Baylor - The Congrove Computer Rankings had the Cowboys as an 18.81-point favorite in the preseason and that margin has since climbed 1.09 points to 19.90. The computer is 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS with OSU. It's 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with the Bears.
Oklahoma State won 59-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Colorado State (-3.5) by 5.84 over UNLV - The computer is 4-3 SU, 5-1 ATS with the Rams. It's 4-2 SU, 3-2 ATS with the Rebels. CSU has won 7 of the last 8 meetings and all but 1 of those victories was by 4 points or more. However, the lone loss came at Sam Boyd Stadium in their last visit in 2009.
UNLV won 38-35. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Virginia Tech (-14) by 15.29 over DUKE - Duke is actually 7th in the ACC on offense, but next-to-last in rushing defense which is the strong suit of the Hokies' offense with David Wilson ranking 4th nationally. Since joining the season ACC, Virginia Tech is 7-0 vs. Duke with 2 shutouts and 4 games holding Duke to 7 points or less, including a 44-7 whipping in Blacksburg last year.
Virginia Tech 14-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS TECH (-17.5) by 20.61 over Iowa State - The Cyclones have lost Texas, Missouri, Baylor and Texas A&M by an average of more than 19 points. Only the A&M loss last week was under 17.5 and that one came close at 33-17. The computer is 4-2 ATS with Texas Tech and 4-1 with Baylor.
Iowa State won 41-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Mississippi State (-10.5) by 11.70 over KENTUCKY - Mississippi State has been a disappointment as it limps into this game with records of 3-4, 0-4 after being preseason picked to go 9-3, 5-3. Kentucky is also 3-4 overall and 0-3 in the conference, but that's where they were expected to be. The Wildcats have lost their 3 SEC games by a cumulative total of 69 points more than the computer predicted and the computer predicted double-digit routs in 2 of those games. Kentucky is 116th in passing offense, 71st in pass offense and 66th in total defense. The Bulldogs are 32nd in total "D" but just 75th in total offense.
Mississippi State won 28-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

South Carolina (-6.5) by 8.64 over TENNESSEE - - Tennessee is 0-4 in conference, losing to Florida, Georgia, LSU and Alabama by at least 8 points.
South Carolina won 14-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Southern Miss (-11) by 11.08 over UTEP - - Since hitting an early bump in the road with a shocking 26-20 loss at Marshall, the Golden Eagles have reeled off 5 straight wins by of which 4 were by 24 points or more.
Southern Miss won 31-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 49-11 SU (.817), 25-35 ATS (.417)
This Week: 6-0 SU (1.000), 1-5 ATS (.167)
PAST RECORDS

Wednesday, October 26
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) by 5.14 over Connecticut - The computer is 4-2 ATS with Pitt, but just 2-4 with UConn. The computer's margin for this game is almost the same as it was in preseason (5.39).
Pittsburgh won 35-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 29
Central Michigan (-8.5) by 7.84 over AKRON - The Zips have been zapped in every FBS game this year with its lone victory coming against FCS member VMI, but its last three losses have been to Eastern Michigan, FIU and Ohio by 8, 10 and 17. Two of those losses were by less than expected.
Central Michigan won 23-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MARSHALL (-6) by 3.14 over Uab - The computer is 5-2 ATS with the Herd and 6-2 with the Blazers.
Marshall won 59-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NEBRASKA (-5.5) by 2.61 over Michigan State - The computer had Nebraska as an 8.30-point favorite in the preseason and that projection has dropped nearly 6 full points. The computer is 7-0 SU with the 'Huskers and 4-2 ATS. It's 6-1 SU with the Spartans, but only 2-4 ATS.
Nebraska won 24-3. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-7) by 3.51 over Wake Forest - The computer is 7-1 SU, 6-1 ATS with the Tar Heels. The computer's PMOV (projected margin of victory) for North Carolina has dropped over 4 points since the preseason. Wake is 1 game out of 1st place in the Atlantic while the Tar Heels are last in the Coastal.
North Carolina won 49-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

West Virginia (-7) by 2.46 over RUTGERS - Don't be surprised if the Scarlet Knights pull out the win. They blasted Pitt 34-10 three weeks ago. Pitt has won the last 2 meetings, but Rutgers took 4 straight before that.
West Virginia won 41-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 14-29 SU (.326), 17-26 ATS (.395)
This Week: 0-2 SU (.000), 0-2 ATS (.000)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 29
Florida by 1.26 over Georgia (-3) (at Jacksonville) - The Gators have dominated the Bulldogs with only 3 losses dating back to 1990, but Florida is only averaging 209.67 yards of offense in its last 3 games. Georgia ranks 3rd in the SEC on offense and defense. The computer is 6-1 SU with both teams.
Georgia won 24-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Syracuse by 1.61 over LOUISVILLE (-4) - The computer is only 4-3 SU, but 4-2 ATS with each of these teams. The series is split 5-5 overall and 2-2 in the last 4 meetings.
Louisville won 27-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.





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