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10/23/12-10/27/12


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 57-18 SU (.760), 39-36 ATS (.520)
This Week: 4-3 SU (.571), 4-3 ATS (.571)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, October 25
Clemson (-16) by 19.83 over WAKE FOREST - The computer says Clemson's advantage has climbed by more than 3-1/2 points since the preseason. The Tigers have won the last 3 meetings and 5 of the last 6.
Clemson won 42-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Friday, October 26
Nevada (-2.5) by 5.92 over AIR FORCE - The 6th-ranked Wolf Pack offense takes on the 86th-ranked Falcon defense. The computer is 4-3 ATS with Nevada and 3-3 with the AFA.
Air Force won 48-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 27
Ball State (-2.5) by 5.85 over ARMY - The computer is 6-2 SU and ATS with the Cardinals. It is 5-2, 3-3 with Army. Ball State won 48-21 last year in Muncie.
Ball State won 30-22. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Northern Illinois (-6) by 6.52 over WESTERN MICHIGAN - NIU was a 1.22-point preseason underdog in this matchup but has flipped to a touchdown favorite. I believe the Huskies are good for almost 2 touchdowns.
Northern Illinois won 48-34. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KANSAS STATE (-8) by 12.50 over Texas Tech - The Wildcats are 10th in scoring offense and 14th in scoring defense. In two of its last three games, Texas Tech surrendered 41 to Oklahoma and 53 to TCU. Kansas State hasn't allowed more than 21 points in any game this season.
Kansas State won 55-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Florida (-3.5) by 6.11 over Georgia (at Jacksonville) - The Gators appear to be hitting on all cylinders while the Bulldogs have struggled over their last three games. The computer is 5-2 ATS with Florida and 4-3 with Georgia.
Georgia won 17-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Baylor (-1) by 2.83 over IOWA STATE - The computer is 4-1 ATS with Baylor and 5-1 with Iowa State. It's Baylor's top-ranked passing game vs. the 81st-ranked pass defense of the Cyclones.
Iowa State won 35-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 41-10 SU (.804), 29-22 ATS (.569)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.750), 3-3 ATS (.400)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, October 26
LOUISVILLE (-6) by 2.48 over Cincinnati - The teams are statistically even on defense, but the Bearcats have the advantage on offense and have taken 4 straight in the series.
Louisville won 34-31 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 27
FLORIDA STATE (-26) by 22.52 over Duke - The computer is 6-1 ATS with the Blue Devils and 3-3 with the 'Noles. Leading FSU rusher Chris Thompson is out for the season.
Florida State won 48-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OREGON (-47.5) by 43.44 over Colorado - Basically, the Ducks would have to want to annihilate Colorado and not take the foot off their throat. I just don't see it happening as Chip Kelly does try to win with class.
Oregon won 70-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

WISCONSIN (-5.5) by 0.76 over Michigan State - Three of MSU's 4 losses have been by 3 points or less.
Michigan State won 16-13 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Ohio State (-3) by 2.45 over PENN STATE - The Buckeyes have lost almost 3 full points off their preseason favorite status in this game. Ohio State has barely survived games against Cal, Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue. Penn State has won each of its last five games by 11 points or more.
Ohio State won 35-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

MARSHALL (-5) by 2.65 over Ucf - The Herd were a 3.87-point favorite in the preseason and the computer margin has trended slightly downward. The Golden Knights have taken 7 straight from Marshall.
UCF won 54-17. The computer lost SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 30-34 SU (.469), 34-30 ATS (.531)
This Week: 4-2 SU (.667), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 27
BOSTON COLLEGE by 4.23 over Maryland (-1) - I personally have a difficult time imagining Boston College (1-6) winning another game this year while Maryland already has road wins this season at Temple and Virginia. But the Terps have lost QB Perry Hills for the year (torn ACL), adding to the fall practice loss of C.J. Brown. That puts the ball in the hands of sophomore Devin Bruns or true freshman Caleb Rowe. The computer is 5-2 SU with both teams but is getting beat to a pulp ATS as it is 0-6 with the Eagles and 2-4 with the Terps.
Boston College won 20-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Byu by 1.44 over GEORGIA TECH (-2) - Very little disparity between the line and the computer pick. The Cougars' 4th-ranked defense trumps all other numbers. The computer is 7-1 SU with BYU and 5-2 with GT.
BYU won 41-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

North Texas by 6.29 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE (-5) - The computer's preseason forecasted has predicted the exact final record of the Mean Green 4 of the last 5 years and missed by just 1 game last season. It picked North Texas to go 5-7 this year and a win this week would make the team 4-4 with just 1 more projected win on the forecast (South Alabama) as it has to face Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky down the stretch.
MTSU won 38-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Fresno State by 11.57 over NEW MEXICO (-13.5) - Don't ask me why, but the line really did open in favor of the Lobos by 13.5 and it took less than 2 hours for it to flip to Fresno by 13. The teams contrast starkly with the Bulldogs taking to the air and the Lobos hitting the ground. The New Mexico running game accounts for 2,375 of its 2,822 total yards which amounts to 84.16% of its offensive production, and Lobo RB Kasey Carrier is 2nd in the nation at 138 yards per game. Fresno State ranks 57th against the run. The Bulldogs get 66% of their offense through the air with Derek Carr having completed 68.1% of his passes for 2,350 yards, 22 TD's and just 4 INT's. Carr is 5th nationally in passing yards and 3rd in touchdowns. The Lobos rank 89th in pass defense.
Fresno State won 49-32. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Michigan by 0.72 over NEBRASKA (-1.5) - The Michigan defense has allowed no more than 13 points in any of its last 5 games. It's a good thing the defense is ranked 10th nationally because the offense ranks 61st. Conversely, Nebraska's "O" ranks 12th while the defense is ranked 43rd.
Nebraska won 23-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WASHINGTON by 1.26 over Oregon State (-4) - The Beavers won by 3 at Arizona where Washington just lost by 35 so that head-to-head comparison doesn't look good for the Huskies. But Washington is 0-3 on the road and 3-1 at home.
Washington won 20-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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