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10/21/09-10/24/09


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/3-9/7
Week 2: 9/10-9/12
Week 3: 9/17-9/19
Week 4: 9/24-9/26
Week 5: 9/30-10/3
Week 6: 10/6-10/10
Week 7: 10/13-10/17
Week 8: 10/21-10/24
Week 9: 10/27-11/1
Week 10: 11/3-11/8
Week 11: 11/10-11/15
Week 12: 11/18-11/21
Week 13: 11/24-11/28
Week 14: 12/3-12/5
Week 15: 12/12-12/12
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2009 Regular Season: 41-16 SU (.719), 30-27 ATS (.526)
Last Week: 7-2 SU (.778), 4-5 ATS (.445)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 3-3 ATS (.500)

Wednesday, October 21
Tulsa (-6.5) by 14.98 over UTEP - The computer is 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with Tulsa. It's 4-2 SU and ATS with UTEP. Tulsa ranks 3rd in CUSA in total offense and 1st in total defense. UTEP ranks 8th in total offense and 12th in total defense.
UTEP won 28-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 24
Louisiana Tech (-2) by 4.21 over UTAH STATE - Utah State is winless vs. FBS teams. Both teams are scoring roughly 27 per game, but Utah State is allowing 10 more per contest.
Utah State won 23-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Penn State (-4) by 7.22 over MICHIGAN - Penn State hasn't won at Michigan since 1996, but ended a 9-game losing streak in this series last year with its' win at State College. The Nittany Lions and Wolverines are ranked 1-2 in the conference in total offense. The difference is in total defense where Penn State ranks 1st and Michigan ranks 7th.
Penn State won 35-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oregon (-5.5) by 20.16 over WASHINGTON - No one in the country has been on the kind of roll that Oregon has been on with 4 straight wins by at least 7 points, and 2 of those by 39 points or more. Oregon ranks 15th nationally in total defense while Washington ranks 106th. The Ducks have won the last 5 meetings by 19 or more points.
Oregon won 43-19. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PITT (-7) by 8.82 over Usf - I'm taking this game simply because the computer is 4-0 ATS on South Florida games. I can't find any other good reason to back it up.
Pitt won 41-14.The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS TECH (-24) by 31.56 over Texas A&M - Here's where the attempt to apply the transitive property of equality to college football scores goes terribly awry - Texas A&M lost to Kansas State by 48 while Texas Tech beat Kansas State by 52 - therefore, Texas Tech should win by 100. Heck, I'm only asking for a quarter of that.
Texas A&M won 52-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2009 Regular Season: 40-9 SU (.816), 24-25 ATS (.490)
Last Week: 6-2 SU (.857), 3-5 ATS (.375)
This Week: 7-0 SU (1.000), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Saturday, October 24
ARKANSAS STATE (-12) by 7.21 over Fiu - These teams have split the last two meetings and both were decided by 3 points or less.
Arkansas State won 27-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NOTRE DAME (-10) by 0.42 over Boston College - Boston College has owned "the Holy War" with 6 straight wins, and the Eagles have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in South Bend.
Notre Dame won 20-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

CALIFORNIA (-35) by 30.25 over Washington State - The Cougars have played 4 conference games and have kept the margin at 26 or less in all but one, a 52-6 loss at Oregon. They fell 39-13 at Stanford, 27-6 at USC and 27-14 at home to Arizona State.
California won 49-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WEST VIRGINIA (-7) by 5.19 over Connecticut - Jasper Howard, a UConn defensive back who had 2 passes defended and 2 pass breakups, was fatally stabbed during a fight outside a campus dance last Saturday night. How will the team react in its first game after such a horrific incident? Will other players face suspension if they were found to be involved in the fight? Randy Edsall is a solid coach whose team's losses have come by a total of 5 points to Pitt and North Carolina. West Virginia QB Jarrett Brown is doubtful for the game after suffering a head injury on the first series against Marshall.
West Virginia won 28-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MARSHALL (-7.5) by 4.48 over Uab - Marshall's conference wins are over Tulane and Memphis, two of the worst teams in CUSA. UAB's 2 conference victories include a 30-17 win over a Southern Miss squad that was missing RB Damion Fletcher due to injury. CUSA rankings for total offense have UAB 6th and Marshall 10th. In total defense, Marshall ranks 5th and UAB 10th.
Mashall won 27-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USC (-20) by 17.02 over Oregon State - The Beavers have won 2 of the last 3 meetings with USC, and Oregon State's only losses this year have been to an undefeated Cincinnati by 10 and Arizona by 5.
USC won 42-36. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-12) by 5.25 over Vanderbilt - South Carolina is just 3-2 vs. BCS conference teams this year, and none of the victories have been by more than 6 points.
South Carolina won 14-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2009 Regular Season: 17-33 SU (.340), 25-25 ATS (.500)
Last Week: 1-6 SU (.143), 3-4 ATS (.429)
This Week: 1-3 SU (.250), 2-2 ATS (.500)

Thursday, October 22
Florida State by 1.90 over NORTH CAROLINA (-2) - North Carolina is 1-14-1 all-time vs. Florida State with the Tar Heels' only win coming in 2001. The Seminoles have been terribly inconsistent while UNC has simply been terrible, particularly on offense. North Carolina has scored a total of 53 points against its' four FBS foes this season, and 31 of those came against East Carolina. The Tar Heels have been stubborn on defense, allowing only 16.75 points per game to those same FBS opponents.
Florida State won 30-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 24
BYU by 2.08 over Tcu (-1) - Personally, I favor undefeated TCU on the premise that BYU's home field advantage is questionable after Florida State walloped the Cougars 54-28 in Provo. What's more, BYU has allowed an average of 28.6 points in its' last five games while TCU has yet to surrender more than 21 to any opponent and allows an average of 13.7. In the computer's defense, BYU outranks TCU on offense. The Cougars are 7th nationally in total offense (TCU ranks 22nd) and 6th in scoring (TCU ranks 16th).
TCU won 38-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Colorado by 1.43 over KANSAS STATE (-3) - The computer's preseason pick had Colorado by 3.65 in this game so its' margin has shrunk by almost 2 points. Kansas State has played Jekyll and Hyde the last two weeks as the Wildcats lost 66-14 at Texas Tech before returning home this past Saturday to drill Texas A&M 62-14. Meanwhile, Colorado is coming off a huge 34-30 win at home over Kansas that knocked the Jayhawks from the unbeaten ranks. The statistics tell us that Kansas State is 11th in the Big 12 in total offense and 5th in total defense. Colorado sits at the bottom of both categories. The computer is 5-0 ATS on Kansas State games, 4-2 with Colorado.
Kansas State won 20-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

MICHIGAN STATE by 1.97 over Iowa (-2) - The Spartans have won 3 straight after a disappointing 1-3 start. Iowa is on an 11-game winning streak, second longest in the nation. The home team has won the last 9 games in the series.
Iowa won 15-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.