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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 53-15 SU (.779), 35-33 ATS (.515)
This Week: 8-2 SU (.800), 5-5 ATS (.500)

Tuesday, October 16
Louisiana-Lafayette (-4.5) by 5.99 over NORTH TEXAS - The Ragin' Cajuns have won 5 straight over the Mean Green and 6 of the last 7.
North Texas won 30-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Thursday, October 18
Oregon (-12) by 12.09 over ARIZONA STATE - The Ducks have won 7 straight in the series with 5 wins by 13 points or more. The other two games produced 11- and 12-point wins.
Oregon won 43-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 20
Bowling Green (-16) by 21.65 over UMASS - The computer line has ticked slightly upward since the preseason making the Falcons a solid numbers favorite at 21 points.
Bowling Green won 24-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Rutgers (-3.5) by 5.23 over TEMPLE - Rutgers' computer margin has increased by 1.9 points since the preseason and has taken the last two meetings with the Owls to open an 18-16 all-time advantage in the series.
Rutgers won 35-10. The computer won SU, won ATS

LOUISVILLE (-9) by 10.90 over Usf - The computer is 5-0 ATS with the undefeated Cardinals who return home after three straight road games.
Louisville won 27-25. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

BOISE STATE (-28.5) by 28.86 over Unlv - The Rebels have been strong at home but awful on the road with losses at Utah State and Louisiana Tech by 22 and 27 points, respectively. The computer is 5-1 ATS with UNLV though just 3-3 with BSU.
Boise State won 32-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

KENT STATE (-3) by 4.18 over Western Michigan - The computer line has increased by nearly 4 points in favor of the Golden Flashes since the preseason. Kent State has lived up to the computer's projection of a 5-1 record at this point while Western Michigan's 3-4 mark is 3 wins off the computer's 6-1 forecast.
Kent State won 41-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-2) by 8.32 over Louisiana-Monroe - WKU has only lost 2 of its last 14 games and those came at Alabama this year and LSU last season. Both teams own an overtime victory over an SEC team this season with Western Kentucky winning at Kentucky and UL-M beating Arkansas in Little Rock. The computer is 5-0 ATS with the Hilltoppers.
Louisiana-Monroe won 43-42 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Florida State (-17.5) by 18.61 over MIAMI, FLA. - It seems like a huge spread for a rivalry game, but the computer line has actually risen 4.47 points since the preseason.
Florida State won 33-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

LOUISIANA TECH (-30) by 36.22 over Idaho - Louisiana Tech as the nation's 123rd-ranked defense but Idaho ranks 111 on offense and 104 on defense. The Bulldogs may score 50 in the first half.
Louisiana Tech won 70-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 37-8 SU (.822), 26-19 ATS (.553)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 2-4 ATS (.333)

Friday, October 19
SYRACUSE (-5) by 1.49 over UConn - If defense wins ball games, and it generally does, then UConn should be the favorite. The Huskies rank 6th overall and the Orange are 28th. The Huskies have taken 5 straight in the series. The computer is 7-0 ATS with UConn and 4-1 with Syracuse.
Syracuse won 40-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 20
WISCONSIN (-19.5) by 19.34 over Minnesota - The Golden Gophers have dropped two straight in the Big Ten after winning all four nonconference games. The computer is 4-1 ATS with Minnesota and 4-2 with Wisconsin. Minnesota has lost 8 straight in the series but only two of those games would have topped this week's spread.
Wisconsin won 38-13. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA (-3.5) by 0.18 over South Carolina - Steve Spurrier has taken the last 2 from the Gators and obviously knows The Swamp well. Still, South Carolina's 2010 win at Florida was its first ever. The computer is 5-1 ATS with the Gators and 6-1 with the Gamecocks.
Florida won 44-11. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

San Jose State (-15) by 3.11 over UTSA - The computer margin has only changed fractionally since the preseason. The Roadrunners are coming off their first loss of the season, 34-14 at Rice. San Jose State is coming off a 49-27 beatdown at home administered by Utah State.
San Jose State won 52-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

AIR FORCE (-11) by 8 over New Mexico - The Falcons (3-3, 2-1) have underperformed on what were fairly low expectations to begin with and their computer margin in this game has dropped 5.2 points since the preseason. Bob Davie's Lobos would improve to 5-3 with a win and that's not entirely impossible. Both teams do nothing but run with the AFA relying on it for 2,178 of their 2,879 yards. New Mexico has gained 1,962 of their 2,375 yards on the ground.
Air Force won 28-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEVADA (-6.5) by 2.49 over San Diego State - The Wolf Pack are 2-1 at home after losing by 1 to USF, topping Wyoming in overtime and only beating FCS member NW State (La.) beat by 11. The Aztecs have won the last two meetings and the series is tied at 2-apiece overall.
San Diego State won 39-38 in OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 26-32 SU (.448), 30-28 ATS (.517)
This Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 2-3 ATS (.400)

Saturday, October 20
EASTERN MICHIGAN by 7.26 over Army (-3.5) - The computer had forecasted Eastern Michigan to go 7-5 with 5 wins in their first 7 games. Instead, they are one of just three winless teams at 0-6 and rank 108th or worse on both sides of the ball. Army is 1-5 with a loss to Stony Brook and a win over Boston College as well as a near-win over a strong Northern Illinois team. EMU is last in run defense while Army is first is run offense.
Eastern Michigan on 48-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS A&M by 3.14 over Lsu (-3) - The Aggies' explosive offense versus the Tigers' stingy defense. A&M is 6th nationally on offense and 74th on defense while LSU is 2nd on defense an 72nd on offense. The 2010 season meeting in the Cotton Bowl was the first for these teams since 1995 as LSU snapped a 5-game losing streak to the Aggies in that game.
LSU won 24-19. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Kansas State by 1 over WEST VIRGINIA (-4.5) - The game features two top Heisman candidates at QB with Kansas State's Collin Klein and West Virginia's Geno Smith. The difference in the ballgame should come on defense where the Wildcats rank 32nd and the Mountaineers rank 117th.
Kansas State won 55-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Washington by 0.98 over ARIZONA (-4.5) - You don't know know what you're going to get from Arizona. In four separate games, the Wildcats shutout a team, got shutout, scored 59 points and allowed 54. At least, Washington is more consistent as the Huskies haven't scored more than 21 vs. any FBS team and haven't allowed more than 24 except to Oregon and LSU where they were noticeably deficient in talent.
Arizona won 52-17. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Utah by 0.78 over OREGON STATE (-7) - Utah was projected to be 5-1 at this point but finds itself at 2-4 and on a 3-game losing streak. Oregon State was projected to be 1-5 at this point but find itself at 5-0. A win by the Utes would be much a bigger upset than the spread indicates.
Oregon State won 21-7. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

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