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10/13/11-10/15/11


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 1: 9/1-9/5
Week 2: 9/8-9/10
Week 3: 9/15-9/17
Week 4: 9/22-9/24
Week 5: 9/29-10/1
Week 6: 10/6-10/8
Week 7: 10/13-10/15
Week 8: 10/18-10/22
Week 9: 10/25-10/29
Week 10: 11/1-11/5
Week 11: 11/8-11/12
Week 12: 11/15-11/19
Week 13: 11/22-11/26
Week 14: 12/1-12/3
Week 15: 12/10-12/10
Week 16: Bowls
Past Season Archives: 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 51-10 SU (.836), 36-25 ATS (.590)
This Week: 12-2 SU (.857), 9-5 ATS (.643)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 15
Alabama (-23) by 28.30 over MISSISSIPPI - Alabama was a 23.84-point preseason favorite in this game so it has added more than 4 points. The computer is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS with Nick Saban's squad. It's just 3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS with Ole Miss.
Alabama won 52-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Boise State (-32) by 34.89 over COLORADO STATE - The computer is a combined 7-2 ATS with these teams in 2011. Though CSU ranks 12th nationally in pass defense, they've also defended the 12th-least number of throws.
Boise State won 63-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Toledo (-7.5) by 18.06 over BOWLING GREEN - The computer is 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with Toledo and the only miss was the referee PAT debacle in the Syracuse game.
Toledo won 28-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEMPLE (-20) by 23.79 over Buffalo - Temple wins over Villanova, Akron, Maryland and Ball State have all been by 31 points or more, and three of those came on the road. The computer is 5-1 SU, 5-0 ATS with the Owls.
Temple won 34-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI (-16) by 27.31 over Iowa State - Missouri has 2 more losses than projected at this point in the computer's preseason forecast. Iowa State is 2 wins above expectations. But the projected margin of victory has only changed fractionally over the course of the season and in favor of the Tigers.
Temple won 52-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma (-31.5) by 35.44 over KANSAS - I think we can safely say that 42+ isn't out of the question. The two computer misses with the Sooners have come in games where it was under the spread.
Oklahoma won 47-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS TECH (-3.5) by 8.82 over Kansas State - The Wildcats head to Lubbock undefeated, but they haven't won there since 1997 and are winless in the last 5 meetings with the Red Raiders. Texas Tech QB Seth Doege has completed 71.4% of his passes for 1,706 yards with 17 TD's and just 1 INT. Kansas State ranks 97th in offense, 17th in defense, but just 40th in pass defense.
Kansas State won 41-34. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Lsu (-15) by 19.09 over TENNESSEE - The computer is 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS with the Tigers. Matt Simms replaces the injured Tyler Bray at QB for Tennessee, which isn't necessarily all gloom and doom for the Vols. Simms started several games last year and played well against Georgia after Bray was knocked out of the game. Tennessee.
LSU won 38-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

RUTGERS (-2) by 5.59 over Navy - Rutgers' only loss this was a 2-point setback at North Carolina. The game will pit the Scarlet Knights' 19th-ranked run defense against the nation's top rushing offense.
Rutgers won 21-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NEVADA (-29) by 29.94 over New Mexico - New Mexico won the only meeting in recent history, a 23-0 shutout in the 2007 New Mexico Bowl. This year's Lobo defense ranks 119th. Nevada's offense isn't as potent as it was under Colin Kaepernick, but it still ranks 21st and topped 500 yards against Oregon and Texas Tech, and gained 699 vs. UNLV.
Nevada won 49-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Western Michigan (-1) by 2.05 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS - The computer is 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with WMU. The Huskies were the computer's preseason pick.
Northern Illinois won 51-22. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma State (-5.5) by 10.49 over TEXAS - The Cowboys have too much offense (No. 2 nationally) for Texas to handle, and not enough of their own (No. 69) to keep pace. The computer is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS with OSU. It's 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS with the Longhorns.
Oklahoma State won 38-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SMU (-2.5) by 3.37 over Ucf - The computer is 4-1 SU, 4-0 ATS with the 'Stangs and they're getting less than home field advantage. The Golden Knights have won each of the three previous meetings, all of which have taken place since 2007. The teams haven't played at SMU since 2007.
SMU won 38-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WYOMING (-13) by 13.66 over Unlv - UNLV has lost every game this year by at least 25 points except for the 40-20 home victory over Hawaii in which the Warriors lost 4 fumbles.
Wyoming won 41-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.





HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 39-9 SU (.813), 22-26 ATS (.458)
This Week: 3-3 SU (.500), 4-2 ATS (.667)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 15
OREGON (-15) by 12.67 over Arizona State - It's unknown if Oregon RB LaMichael James, a bona fide Heisman candidate, will play after incurring what seemed to be a severe elbow injury last weekend as information has not been forthcoming from the Ducks. However, It's tough to imagine he would play a lot, or be as effective as he has been under the circumstances. Arizona State was a 12.72-point computer underdog in the preseason and the margin has dropped only fractionally to 12.67 heading into the game.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-13.5) by 9.18 over Eastern Michigan - The computer is 5-1 SU, 3-2 ATS with CMU. It's 6-0, 4-0 with EMU. The Chippewas have dominated the last two meetings with wins of 52-14 and 56-8. Prior to that, this rivalry game was decided by 7 points or less for 5 straight seasons. These teams are polar opposites with EMU running (1,254) for twice as many yards as passing (639), and CMU passing (1,401) for twice as many yards as rushing (702).
Eastern Michigan won 35-28. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

East Carolina (-16.5) by 15.90 over MEMPHIS - The computer is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS with the Pirates. It's 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with the Tigers.
East Carolina won 35-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

IOWA (-7) by 0.03 over Northwestern - The Hawkeyes have 1 win over a team from one of the "Big 6" conferences and that was a 4-point rallying escape of Pitt. The Wildcats also have just 1 win over a "Big 6" conference opponent and that happened back in week 1 at an awful Boston College team. But keep in mind that NW also had a 3-point loss at undefeated Illinois. The computer has correctly forecasted 65% of Big Ten games against the spread this season.
Iowa won 41-31. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TROY (-10.5) by 5.17 over La.-Monroe - Troy has struggled to a 3-point home win over MTSU and a 1-point home victory over UAB. The computer has consistently had this game around the 5-point mark for the Trojans since preseason.
La.-Monroe won 38-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

PENN STATE (-13) by 10.32 over Purdue - These are two of the better-performing Big Ten teams for the computer as it is 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS with the Nittany Lions while going 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the B'makers.
Penn State won 23-18. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) by 0.35 over Utah - Utah QB Jordan Wynn is out for the season. The computer has had this game in favor of Pitt by less than a point since the preseason.
Utah won 26-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.




UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 12-23 SU (.343), 15-20 ATS (.429)
This Week: 1-2 SU (.333), 1-2 ATS (.333)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 15
Florida by 1.69 over AUBURN (-1) - Florida has scored just 11 points in 6 quarters since QB John Brantley went down just before halftime of the 'Bama game. To make matters worse, the Florida defense has allowed an average of 232 yards rushing in its last two games while gaining just 15 vs. the Tide and 113 vs. the Tigers. That being said, the computer is 6-0 with the Gators and 4-2 with Auburn.
Auburn won 17-6. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Byu by 4.35 over OREGON STATE (-1) - Truly a toss-up. Oregon State picked up its first victory of the season with a 37-27 home win over Arizona last Saturday. BYU is coming off a 4-game home stretch that began with a blowout loss to Utah and ended with an unimpressive string of wins over UCF, Utah State and San Jose State. The computer is 4-2 with the Cougars and 2-3 with the Beavers.
BYU won 38-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Idaho by 0.69 over NEW MEXICO STATE (-1) - Idaho was a preseason 3rd-place pick in the WAC that has just one victory overall and none against FBS schools. NMSU pulled off an upset at Minnesota and defeated rival New Mexico. The computer is 3-3 with the Vandals and 3-2 with the Aggies.
New Mexico State won 31-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.



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