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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 45-13 SU (.776), 30-28 ATS (.517)
This Week: 7-1 SU (.875), 5-3 ATS (.625)

Thursday, October 11
Western Kentucky (-1.5) by 8.97 over TROY - The Hilltoppers' only have 2 losses in their last 13 games and those came at Alabama and LSU.
Western Kentucky won 31-26. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 13
RUTGERS (-8.5) by 16.38 over Syracuse - The disparity between the line and computer margin are too great to ignore. Rutgers may very well be the best team in the Big East. The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 overall and 2-0 in B.E. play. Syracuse is just 2-3 overall but 1-0 in league play with the win last week over Pitt in the Carrier Dome.
Rutgers won 23-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Florida (-8.5) by 8.60 over VANDERBILT - The Vanderbilt offense hasn't scored more than 19 points vs. an FBS team. The 'Dores came closer to beating South Carolina than anyone else has, but they also got bombed 48-3 at Georgia before rebounding with a 19-15 win at Missouri last week.
Florida won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MICHIGAN (-21) by 23.44 over Illinois - The Illini have lost their last 4 FBS games, 3 of them by 28 points or more.
Michigan won 45-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Oklahoma State (-20) by 27.98 over KANSAS - The Cowboys are averaging 660 yards per game on offense and Kansas is allowing 450 a game on defense. This should be an epic blowout.
Oklahoma State won 20-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

West Virginia (-4) by 6.86 over TEXAS TECH - After surviving its trip to Austin last week, it's back to the Lone Star state for a visit to Lubbock. Texas Tech is ranked 2nd nationally in total defense, but those numbers aren't very telling when they come against the likes of NW State, La. (FCS), Texas State and New Mexico.
Texas Tech won 49-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS STATE (-1) by 7.48 over Idaho - The computer is 4-1 SU and 4-0 ATS with Texas State games. It's 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS with Vandals games.
Texas State won 38-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

California (-4.5) by 10.96 over WASHINGTON STATE - The computer is 5-1 SU and 5-0 ATS with Wazzu games this year. It's 3-3 SU and 4-1 ATS on games in which Cal has been involved.
California won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 32-7 SU (.821), 24-15 ATS (.615)
This Week: 1-1 SU (1.000), 2-0 ATS (1.000)

Saturday, October 13
Hawaii (-3) by 2.47 over New Mexico - I could actually see New Mexico winning this game. The Lobos rank 110th on offense while the Warriors rank 122nd. On defense, New Mexico ranks 88th and Hawaii 89th.
New Mexico won 35-23. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Usc (-13) by 10.48 over WASHINGTON - The Huskies have been awful on the road, but those road trips did take them to LSU and Oregon. Washington has looked much better at home with a win over Stanford to add to two more victories over not-so-heavyweight programs San Diego State and Portland State (FCS). USC has not looked good on the road where they have beaten Syracuse by 13, lost to Stanford by 7 and defeated Utah by 10.
USC won 24-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 24-29 SU (.453), 28-25 ATS (.528)
This Week: 1-7 SU (.125), 3-5 ATS (.375)

Friday, October 12
CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 7.58 over Navy (-3.5) - Buoyed by a 3-0 turnover margin, Navy was a surprising 28-21 overtime winner at Air Force last week while CMU was losing 50-35 to Toledo. These teams met in 2010 at Annapolis with Navy winning 38-37 over a bad Chippewas team that finished just 3-9 that year. The computer is 4-1 SU with both schools, 3-1 ATS with Navy and 1-3 ATS with CMU.
Navy won 31-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, October 13
KENT STATE by 6.19 over Army (-4) - An interesting trend this week shows the line working against all three military academies while the computer takes all three to win by a touchdown. Army is the top-ranked rushing team in the FBS while the Golden Flashes rank 44th in stopping the run, but 64th in yards allowed per carry (4.06). The computer is 1-3 ATS with both teams.
Kent State won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Auburn by 10.73 over MISSISSIPPI (-1) - Auburn is desperate for a win after last week's home loss to Arkansas knocked the Tigers down to 1-4 overall, 0-3 in the SEC. Ole Miss has dropped 16 straight SEC games. Five of the computer's outright upset picks this week have more than a 10-point discrepancy with the oddsmakers. The computer is 2-3 ATS with Auburn and 1-4 with the Rebels.
Mississippi won 41-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FIU by 13.34 over Middle Tennessee (-2.5) - The computer is 2-4 ATS with FIU and 1-3 with MTSU. Everyone expected more out of the Golden Panthers this year and the computer's preseason forecast had them beating the Blue Raiders by 27.92 points. Now the computer margin is less than half of that. The computer is just 1-4 SU with Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee won 34-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Utah by 0.93 over UCLA (-5) - Utah has been a bit of a disappointment and UCLA has been a surprise. Consequently, the computer's margin for Utah winning this game has declined by 6.80 points since the preseason. Momentum of the trend and home field advantage side with the Bruins.
UCLA won 21-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WYOMING by 6.57 over Air Force (-5.5) - I would certainly expect Air Force to rebound from last week's home loss in overtime to rival Navy, but the fact is that the Falcons have been terribly inconsistent - they played Michigan close, lost at UNLV and drubbed Colorado State. Wyoming has participated in four straight games that were decided by 3 points or less, or by a TD in overtime. In the season opener, the Cowboys lost at Texas by just 20. The AFA is 2nd nationally in rushing offense while Central Michigan is 117th in rushing defense. The computer is 1-3 ATS with Air Force but 3-1 with Wyoming. It is 3-2 SU with both teams.
Air Force won 28-27. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

South Carolina by 2.63 over LSU (-4) - The computer is 6-0 SU with both teams, 5-1 ATS with the Gamecocks and 3-2 ATS with the Tigers. LSU was the computer's preseason favorite in this contest by 1.81 points.
LSU won 23-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Utsa by 1.21 over RICE (-6.5) - Former Miami head coach Larry Coker has the Roadrunners at 5-0 against what is, by far, the nation's weakest schedule. The computer had Rice by 6.51 in the preseason which is what the opening line was this week before dropping to 3 points by late Wednesday. The computer is 4-1 SU, 2-0 ATS with Texas-San Antonio. It is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS with the Owls.
Rice won 34-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS

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