Friday, October 12
CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 7.58 over Navy (-3.5) - Buoyed by a 3-0 turnover margin, Navy was a surprising 28-21 overtime winner at Air Force last week while CMU was losing 50-35 to Toledo. These teams met in 2010 at Annapolis with Navy winning 38-37 over a bad Chippewas team that finished just 3-9 that year. The computer is 4-1 SU with both schools, 3-1 ATS with Navy and 1-3 ATS with CMU.
Navy won 31-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Saturday, October 13
KENT STATE by 6.19 over Army (-4) - An interesting trend this week shows the line working against all three military academies while the computer takes all three to win by a touchdown. Army is the top-ranked rushing team in the FBS while the Golden Flashes rank 44th in stopping the run, but 64th in yards allowed per carry (4.06). The computer is 1-3 ATS with both teams.
Kent State won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Auburn by 10.73 over MISSISSIPPI (-1) - Auburn is desperate for a win after last week's home loss to Arkansas knocked the Tigers down to 1-4 overall, 0-3 in the SEC. Ole Miss has dropped 16 straight SEC games. Five of the computer's outright upset picks this week have more than a 10-point discrepancy with the oddsmakers. The computer is 2-3 ATS with Auburn and 1-4 with the Rebels.
Mississippi won 41-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
FIU by 13.34 over Middle Tennessee (-2.5) - The computer is 2-4 ATS with FIU and 1-3 with MTSU. Everyone expected more out of the Golden Panthers this year and the computer's preseason forecast had them beating the Blue Raiders by 27.92 points. Now the computer margin is less than half of that. The computer is just 1-4 SU with Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee won 34-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
Utah by 0.93 over UCLA (-5) - Utah has been a bit of a disappointment and UCLA has been a surprise. Consequently, the computer's margin for Utah winning this game has declined by 6.80 points since the preseason. Momentum of the trend and home field advantage side with the Bruins.
UCLA won 21-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.
WYOMING by 6.57 over Air Force (-5.5) - I would certainly expect Air Force to rebound from last week's home loss in overtime to rival Navy, but the fact is that the Falcons have been terribly inconsistent - they played Michigan close, lost at UNLV and drubbed Colorado State. Wyoming has participated in four straight games that were decided by 3 points or less, or by a TD in overtime. In the season opener, the Cowboys lost at Texas by just 20. The AFA is 2nd nationally in rushing offense while Central Michigan is 117th in rushing defense. The computer is 1-3 ATS with Air Force but 3-1 with Wyoming. It is 3-2 SU with both teams.
Air Force won 28-27. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
South Carolina by 2.63 over LSU (-4) - The computer is 6-0 SU with both teams, 5-1 ATS with the Gamecocks and 3-2 ATS with the Tigers. LSU was the computer's preseason favorite in this contest by 1.81 points.
LSU won 23-21. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
Utsa by 1.21 over RICE (-6.5) - Former Miami head coach Larry Coker has the Roadrunners at 5-0 against what is, by far, the nation's weakest schedule. The computer had Rice by 6.51 in the preseason which is what the opening line was this week before dropping to 3 points by late Wednesday. The computer is 4-1 SU, 2-0 ATS with Texas-San Antonio. It is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS with the Owls.
Rice won 34-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS