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10/10/07-10/14/07


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
Week 4: 9/20-9/22
Week 5: 9/27-9/29
Week 6: 10/2-10/7
Week 7: 10/10-10/14
Week 8: 10/18-10/21
Week 9: 10/25-10/28
Week 10: 11/1-11/4
Week 11: 11/6-11/10
Week 12: 11/13-11/17
Week 13: 11/20-11/24
Week 14: 11/29-12/1
Week 15: Bowls
Archiving began in Week 4 in the 2007 Season.

EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 38-6 SU (.864), 25-19 ATS (.568)
Last Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 4-2 ATS (.667)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 3-4 ATS (.429)

Saturday, October 13th
AKRON (-10) by 17.06 over Temple -
This is just the second game in the Rubber Bowl for Akron this year as the Zips have only four home games. Temple lost by 13 at Bowling Green in its only conference road game this year. The Owls' 16-15 win over Northern Illinois was the school's first MAC win. The computer is 22-16 ATS in MAC East games this season. It's a combined 10-2 SU, and 8-4 ATS with these schools in 2007.
Temple won 24-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

KANSAS STATE (-5) by 10.70 over Colorado -
The homestanding Wildcats look to rebound after losing at home to Kansas for the first time since 1989. The Buffs are on a roll and looking to win four straight for the first time since 2002. The two schools are statistically even - the Wildcats edge the Buffs in total offense 384-379 yards per contest, and they each surrender 308 per game.
Kansas State won 47-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Brigham Young (-11) by 17.83 over UNLV - BYU ranks first in the conference in total offense, and UNLV ranks 7th in total defense. Cougar QB Max Hall has thrown for 1,762 yards and 12 TD's against just 5 INT's.
BYU won 24-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Virginia Tech (-13.5) by 21.75 over DUKE - The Blue Devils haven't scored against Virginia Tech since 2004 and have lost their three ACC meetings with the Hokies by a total score of 122-17. Yes, Virginia Tech is struggling on offense. Yes, Duke appears to be more competitive than in recent years. But the Blue Devils are still just 1-5 over-all and recent history weighs heavily in Virginia Tech's favor to cover 13-1/2 points against Duke.
Virginia Tech won 43-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Louisiana State (-9) by 10.87 over KENTUCKY -
LSU survived a scare against Florida last week. Now, the Tigers have to hit the road to battle one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Andre Woodson. LSU's current  13-game winning streak started with last year's 49-0 home win over Kentucky in which the Tigers out-gained the Wildcats 546-227and led 28-0 by halftime.
Kentucky won 43-37 in 3 OT's. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

South Carolina (-6.5) by 18.16 over NORTH CAROLINA -
These teams were ACC foes from 1953-1971, and Southern Conference rivals from 1922-1952. This will be their first meeting since 1991, which was the year before the Gamecocks joined the SEC.
South Carolina won 21-15. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Rutgers (-17) by 22.22 over SYRACUSE - Syracuse has lost its three previous home games by an average of 27 points per game. Rutgers won the last two meetings with the Orange by 31 and 22.
Rutgers won 38-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.



HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2007 Regular Season: 33-9 SU (.786), 25-17 ATS (.595)
Last Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 6-1 ATS (.857)
This Week: 5-2 SU (.714), 5-2 ATS (.714)

Friday, October 12th
Hawaii (-18) by 16.44 over SAN JOSE STATE - Hawaii's biggest win at San Jose State was 21 points in 1999. The Warriors' last two trips to San Jose produced wins of 45-38 in 2005 and 13-10 in 2003.
Hawaii won 42-35 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 13th
Boston College (-14) by 4.46 over NOTRE DAME -
The "Holy Wars" have been close contests traditionally. This is their first get-together since 2004 when Boston College scored the winning touchdown with 54 seconds left for a 24-23 win at Notre Dame. In 2003 at Chestnut Hill, it was Sandro Sciortino's 26-yard field goal with 38 seconds left that defeated the Irish. The largest victory margin ever in this series for the Eagles was 19 points (30-11) in 1994.
Boston College won 27-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

USC (-21) by 17.46 over Arizona - The Wildcats' worst loss this year was by 18 at Cal. The computer is 4-1 ATS with Arizona this season and 35-18 with all PAC-10 teams combined. However, it's just 2-3 ATS with USC. The Trojans will start redshirt sophomore Mark Sanchez at quarterback in place of John David Booty who has a broken middle finger on his throwing hand.
USC won 20-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

ARKANSAS STATE (-9) by 7.04 over La.-Lafayette - UL-L has won three of the last four meetings, but the Indians won the last meeting in Jonesboro 39-36 in 2005. Arkansas State's last win by at least 9 points in this series occurred in 1992.
Arkansas State won 52-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

CALIFORNIA (-14) by 9.31 over Oregon State -
The Beavers have won three straight at Memorial Stadium and haven't lost at Cal since 1997. The Bears boast numerous offensive weapons but Oregon State is the PAC-10's top rushing defense and ranks second in the conference in total defense. The computer is 35-18 ATS with all PAC-10 teams this year.
Oregon State won 31-28. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

CINCINNATI (-10) by 3.71 over Louisville -
The Cards have a 4-game winning streak over the Bearcats, and have taken 8 of the last 9 meetings. The computer is a combined 7-3 ATS with these teams in 2007 and this is a must-win game for Louisville. Cincinnati own the nation's second-longest winning streak at 9 games.
Louisville won 28-24. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

OREGON (-18) by 16.02 over Washington State - After three straight meetings in Pullman, the series moves to Eugene for the first time since 2003 when the Cougars ripped the Ducks 55-16.
Oregon won 53-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.



UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, every projected upset is listed.
2007 Regular Season: 22-23 SU (.489), 27-18 ATS (.600)
Last Week: 2-3 SU (.400), 3-2 ATS (.600)
This Week: 7-3 SU (.700), 8-2 ATS (.800)

Thursday, October 11th
WAKE FOREST by 3.67 over Florida State (-6) -
The Demon Deacons routed the Seminoles 30-0 in Tallahassee last year for their first win over FSU since 1973. In the process, Wake Forest ended a 14-game losing streak to the 'Noles and handed Bobby Bowden his first-ever shutout loss on his home field. Both teams reside in the ACC's Atlantic Division with the defending champion Demon Deacons sitting at 2-1 while FSU is 1-1. Boston College, which defeated Wake Forest in the opening game, sits atop the division standings with a perfect 3-0 record. Florida State visits BC on November 3.
Wake Forest won 24-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 13th
Auburn 1.61 over ARKANSAS (-3) -
Auburn and Alabama are the only two teams left within striking distance of LSU and each plays the Tigers in the next three weeks. Arkansas is off to a disappointing 0-2 start in the SEC and its three OOC victories have come against two Sun Belt Conference schools and a Championship Subdivision team.
Auburn won 9-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Bowling Green by 0.09 over MIAMI (OHIO) - With back-to-back wins over Syracuse and Kent State, the Red Hawks (2-0, 3-3) have moved into a tie for first place in the MAC East with Akron (2-0, 3-3). Bowling Green (1-0, 3-2) sits a half-game back. The Falcons top the MAC in passing offense which doesn't bode well for Miami - the RedHawks are 12th in the MAC in pass defense, and 94th in the nation. Miami's rushing offense is only a modest 6th in the MAC while BGSU is last in the conference defending the run.
Miami (Ohio) won 47-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

East Carolina by 0.84 over UTEP (-2) - Wins over Houston and UCF have catapulted the Pirates into first place in CUSA's East division. UTEP leads the West after last week's wild 48-47 win over Tulsa.
East Carolina won 45-42 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Georgia Tech by 4.60 over MIAMI, FLA. (-2.5) - In the preseason, many forecasters expected this to be a heavyweight bout between two contenders for the ACC title. Now, they are basically fighting on the undercard after Miami fell to North Carolina last week and the Yellow Jackets slipped to 1-3 in conference play with a narrow loss at Maryland.
Georgia Tech 17-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

IOWA by 3.05 over Illinois (-3.5) - Illinois and Ohio State are 3-0 in the Big 10, Michigan is 2-0. The Buckeyes host Kent State in a non-conference game, so the Fighting Illini would find themselves alone at the top of the Big Ten standings if they were to win this week. Iowa is battling Minnesota for last place, yet the computer picks the Hawkeyes to gain the upset here by 3.05 points. The Iowa offense is averaging just 26 points a game, and less than 14 points per game in its three previous conference games (all losses).
Iowa won 10-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Middle Tennessee by 2.21 over MEMPHIS (-4) - Middle Tennessee took a hard loss at home to Virginia last week when the Cavaliers kicked the game winning field goal with 8 seconds left. Memphis played, and won, two days after the on-campus shooting death of team mate Taylor Bradford. This is the first-ever meeting between the two Tennessee schools. The computer is 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS with MTSU.
Middle Tennessee won 21-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Purdue by 1.23 over MICHIGAN (-6) - The potent Boilermaker offense was manhandled last week by Ohio State's defense in a 23-7 loss. Michigan, meanwhile, was anything but impressive in a 33-22 win over Eastern Michigan. Michigan only led that game 16-14 in the third quarter before getting 17 unanswered points. Michigan's balanced offense has ran and passed for nearly equal yardage while Purdue has gone through the air for two-thirds of its real estate. Boilermaker QB Brian Painter ranks 3rd nationally with 19 TD passes against just 3 interceptions. Wolverine RB Mike Hart is tops in the conference, and second in the nation, with an average of 162.7 rushing yards per game. Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State are the only Big Ten teams that have yet to endure a conference loss.
Michigan won 48-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Minnesota by 0.39 over NORTHWESTERN (-7) - If Northwestern wants to make it to a bowl game, it has to beat Minnesota. The Wildcats improved to 3-3 with an overtime win at Michigan State last week. Minnesota is still looking for its Big Ten victory under first-year head coach Tim Brewster.
Northwestern won 49-48 in 2-OT. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

New Mexico by 0.21 over WYOMING - Wyoming joins BYU and, surprisingly, San Diego State as the only teams in the conference that haven't already taken a league loss. The Lobos' two losses have come by a total of 11 points - a 10-6 loss at UTP on opening day, and a 31-24 home loss to BYU in its last outing on September 29. Wyoming beat TCU in its conference opener last week, and is the only team that Virginia has lost to after it routed the Cavaliers 23-3 in the season opener.
New Mexico won 20-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.