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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.

The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2013 Regular Season: 111-18 SU (.860), 78-51 ATS (.605)
2014 Regular Season: 28-17 SU (.622), 12-33 ATS (.267)
This Week: 4-3 SU (.571), 3-4 ATS (.429)

Saturday, October 11
Auburn (-3) by 4.24 over MISSISSIPPI STATE- If you try to compare results against the only common opponent of these teams - LSU - you would conclude that Auburn would blast Mississippi State. After all, the Bulldogs only won by 5 at LSU while Auburn beat the Bayou Bengals by 34 at Auburn. But transitive properties rarely seem to reliably apply to predicting college football games so let's just say that it's a very tall task to ask Mississippi State to knock off LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn in a 3-game stretch. The Bulldogs rank 86th on defense while Auburn ranks 14th. Mississippi State ranks 12th on offense while the Tigers rank 25th.
Mississippi State won 38-23. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Buffalo (-11) by 17.05 over EASTERN MICHIGAN - Eastern Michigan has lost each of its FBS gams this season by at least 14 points. EMU ranks 127th on offense and 121st on defense.
Eastern Michigan won 37-27. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TULANE (-2) by 16.76 over Connecticut - The disparity between Vegas and the computer is just too large to pass up. Both teams are 1-4 but the Green Wave have played the tougher schedule and a 3-point home win isn't much to ask.
Tulane won 12-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.

East Carolina (-14) by 20.71 over USF - How is it possible that the Pirates are only giving 2 touchdowns at one of the worst teams in the country? South Florida is 108th in the computer's ranking of all 128 FBS teams while ECU ranks 25th. The Bulls are 112th nationally in pass completion percentage allowed by the defense while ECU boasts the 4th-most prolific pass offense. East Carolina is 0-4 all-time vs. USF but the teams haven't met since 2006.
East Carolina won 28-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Lsu (-1) by 7.93 over FLORIDA - Don't be surprised if the final is 6-3, but as long as LSU has the 6.....
LSU won 30-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MINNESOTA (-1) by 7.57 over Northwestern - The computer projection has changed less than a point since the preseason.
Minnesota won 24-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TEXAS A&M (-1) by 5.10 over Mississippi - The Rebels' reward for beating Alabama last week is a trip to College Station where the Aggies would love to get revenge on anyone from the state of Mississippi after last weekend's 48-31 beatdown administered by Mississippi State. The trend line is closer to 3 in favor of the Aggies, but that would be enough to do the trick at Kyle Field.
Mississippi won 35-20. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2013 Regular Season: 70-12 SU (.854), 41-41 ATS (.500)
2014 Regular Season: 36-5 SU (.878), 16-25 ATS (.390)
This Week: 3-0 SU (1.000), 1-2 ATS (.333)

Saturday, October 11
Alabama (-8) by 6.77 over ARKANSAS - The computer's projected margin has dropped 9.16 points since the preseason and the trend actually favors Arkansas by nearly 2-1/2. Bret Bielema and the Razorbacks have had an extra week to gameplan for a team they've lost to 7 straight times. The Tide have won each of the last 2 meetings 52-0. But this is a much-improved Arkansas team that is only 25 points shy of last year's complete season point total after just 5 games, and is on pace to surrender about 60 fewer points.
Alabama won 14-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Georgia (-3) by 2.82 over MISSOURI - Missouri won at South Carolina by 1. Georgia lost by 3. I'll take Missouri outright on home field advantage, though the visitor has won both meetings since the Tigers joined the SEC. (RB Todd Gurley won't play for the Bulldogs as he is indefinitely suspended while the NCAA investigates a possible rules violation. Gurley is alleged to have taken money for autographs on more than one occasion.)
Georgia won 34-0. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

IOWA (-7) by 1.35 over Indiana - The computer's trend line likes Indiana to win outright by a point.
Iowa won 45-29. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2013 Regular Season: 47-48 SU (.495), 59-36 ATS (.694)
2014 Regular Season: 20-30 SU (.400), 23-27 ATS (.460)
This Week: 6-6 SU (.500), 7-5 ATS (.583)

Saturday, October 11
Rice by 2.36 over ARMY (-2.5) - The computer has had this as a tight contest since the preseason with the Owls getting the edge.
Rice won 41-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Boston College by 3.21 over N.C. STATE (-6) - Both teams have had Jekyll & Hyde issues. BC defeated USC and then lost to Colorado State. N.C. State gave Florida State a run for its money, then got its doors blown off by Clemson. Statistically, BC has the much better defense.
Boston College won 30-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Bowling Green by 4.27 over OHIO (-2.5) - BGSU ranks dead last in the MAC on defense but 2nd on offense. Ohio ranks 10th on offense and 9th on defense. Advantage would seem to go to the Falcons, but the computer has them winning this game by half as many points as it projected in the preseason.
Bowling Green won 31-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEVADA by 2.90 over Colorado State (-1) - Nevada is coming off a hard-fought and heartbreaking home loss to Boise State. Colorado State comes into this game with a 4-1 record with the lone loss coming at Boise State. Neither team can afford to drop another MWC contest.
Colorado State won 31-24. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Duke by 5.58 over GEORGIA TECH (-5) - The Jackets were predicted to be 2-3 at this point. Instead, they're 5-0 and looking to improve their ACC mark to 3-0. Duke comes in at 0-1 in the conference and 4-1 over-all. The Blue Devils must win if they hope to contend for a second straight Coastal division title. As usual, Georgia Tech is a one-dimensional rushing team and Duke ranks last in the conference in stopping the run.
Duke won 31-25. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Wyoming by 3.78 over HAWAII (-3) - The Cowboys are 3-2 (1-0, MWC) while Hawaii is 1-4 (0-1 MWC). Wyoming has won the last 6 meetings in the series, including a wild 59-56 overtime thriller last year in Laramie when the computer favored the Cowboys by 3.49 points.
Hawaii won 38-28. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Houston by 0.49 over MEMPHIS (-4) - Houston has been a disappointment while Memphis has been a pleasant surprise. The Cougars (2-3, 0-1) were projected to go 9-3 while the Tigers (3-2, 1-0) were expected to go 5-7. Memphis was an 8.45-point underdog in the preseason and the trend line now favors the Tigers by about 7-1/2.
Houston won 28-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Toledo by 7.57 over IOWA STATE (-5) - Toledo gets a second chance to score a win over a Power 5 Conference school after bowing 49-24 at home to Missouri on September 6 when the computer liked the Rockets to win that game by 5.10. The trend line is Toledo by 3.
Iowa State won 37-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

MICHIGAN by 3.71 over Penn State (-2) - Michigan is 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 1967 when it started 0-3. The Nittany Lions have won four straight in the series. The computer trend line favors Penn State by 3.
Michigan won 18-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

North Texas by 3.43 over UAB (-3) - The computer trend line only favors UNT by 0.75. The befuddling Blazers won at Western Kentucky, a week after losing at home to FIU.
UAB won 56-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

UCLA by 3.49 over Oregon (-3) - The computer saw this game in the preseason as a prequel to the PAC-12 title contest. It forecasted UCLA to win both meetings.
Oregon won 42-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS TECH by 0.29 over West Virginia (-3) - Texas Tech was favored by 12.04 in the preseason. Now, the trend line is nearly 12 points in favor of WVU.
West Virginia won 37-34. The computer lost SU, won ATS. (55-yard FG on final play as WVU scores last 17 points in 4th qtr.)

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