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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 38-12 SU (.760), 25-25 ATS (.500)
This Week: 9-2 SU (.818), 8-3 ATS (.727)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 6
AIR FORCE (-7.5) by 9.87 over Navy - Coming off a 12-0 blanking at home by San Jose State, Navy is winless vs. FBS schools in 2012 and has scored a total of 17 points against Notre Dame, Penn State and SJSU.
Navy won 28-21 in OT. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Boston College (-8) by 8.77 over ARMY - The Black Knights have lost their 4 games to BC by at least 20 points, have lost 5 straight to the Eagles and 14 of the last 15.
Army won 34-31. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

DUKE (-1) by 2.91 over Virginia - With a win, the Blue Devils would move to 5-1 overall and 2-0 in the ACC. Duke has won 3 of the last 4, but lost to the Cavs last year in Charlottesville.
Duke won 42-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

WISCONSIN (-11.5) by 12.57 over Illinois - Illinois has lost its last 2 games vs. Louisiana Tech and Penn State by 28 points and fell by 31 in its only previously road trip (at Arizona State). The Badgers have had their own problems, but the Fighting Illini should help cure their ills.
Wisconsin won 31-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

KANSAS STATE (-23.5) by 32.97 over Kansas - Kansas ranks 90th on defense and 88th on offense. The computer's spread since the preseason has only moved from 32.95 to 32.97 and the computer is a combined 6-2 SU and 5-1 ATS with these teams in 2012."
Kansas State won 56-16. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MARYLAND (-2) by 5.08 over Wake Forest - Weak Forest has allowed 27 or more points in every game vs. an FBS opponent. Maryland held West Virginia to 31 in its 31-21 loss at WVU in its last game out and has had extra time to prepare for the Demon Deacons.
Maryland won 19-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

OREGON STATE (-11.5) by 12.92 over Washington State - The surprising Beavers were just 7-point computer favorites in the preseason.
Oregon State won 19-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-2.5) by 4.45 over Georgia - The Georgia "d" has been suspect at times, especially last week when it allowed 44 to Tennessee in Athens. The Gamecocks have yielded no more than 17 points in a game this season and have won the last 2 meetings in this border rivalry.
South Carolina won 35-7. The computer won SU, won ATS.

La.-Monroe (-6) by 12.24 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE - One TD should be a piece of cake for the Warhawks who won 63-10 at Tulane last week, held tough against Auburn and Baylor, and initiated Arkansas' downward spiral. Yes, MTSU won at Georgia Tech last week but that was aided by 4 Yellow Jacket turnovers and ULM has won or tied the TO battle in every game.
La.-Monroe won 31-17. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas A&M (-8.5) by 21.25 over MISSISSIPPI - I have to take this game, if only for the 14-point disparity between the line and the computer's projected margin. The Rebels have lost 15 straight SEC games.
Texas A&M won 30-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NEW MEXICO (-1) by 4.66 over Texas State - New Mexico's computer advantage has grown by nearly 4 points since the preseason. The Lobos are coming off a 3-point home loss to Boise State.
New Mexico won 35-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 31-6 SU (.838), 22-15 ATS (.595)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 2-5 ATS (.286)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, October 4
Usc (-12) by 8.18 over UTAH - Last year's contest was decided by 9 points in Los Angeles. The Utes were embarrassed in a 37-7 loss at Arizona State in their last outing, but the Trojans have been far from intimidating in their two previous road trips to Syracuse (42-29 win) and Stanford (14-21 loss).
USC won 38-28. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, October 6
Boise State (-9.5) by 3.64 over SOUTHERN MISS - 3 of BSU's previous 4 games have been decided by 4 points or less.
Boise State won 40-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Tulsa (-5.5) by 1.56 over MARSHALL - The Golden Hurricane have been sluggish on the road with a 7-point win at UAB last week and a 15-point loss at Iowa State in the season opener.
Tulsa won 47-36. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Oklahoma (-8) by 7.43 over TEXAS TECH - The Sooners are winless in Lubbock since 2003, but the schools met in Norman the last two years, and three of the last four. The teams have alternated victories in their last 8 meetings and Texas Tech won last year by 3.
Oklahoma won 41-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

HOUSTON (-10) by 7.94 over North Texas - The Mean Green lost by just 14 at Kansas State and 27 at LSU and should be able to hold their own against the Cougars.
Houston won 44-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

TEXAS (-6.5) by 4.14 over West Virginia - Both teams have proven to be capable of scoring, and allowing, points. The scary factor in West Virginia is the efficiency of the offense, particularly QB Geno Smith who has completed 83.4% of his passes for 20 TD's and 0 INT's. Texas QB David Ash has 10 TD tosses and just 1 INT. Texas ranks 64th in total defense and West Virginia 108th.
West Virginia won 48-45. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

OREGON (-24) by 14.95 over Washington - Even in Oregon's current 8-game win streak over the Huskies, only 3 games topped this week's 24-point spread.
Oregon won 52-21. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 23-22 SU (.511), 25-20 ATS (.556)
This Week: 3-5 SU (.375), 5-3 ATS (.625)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, October 6
Northern Illinois by 2.44 over BALL STATE (-1) - Two of the better teams in the MAC square off. NIU's 4-1 record includes a win over Kansas and a 1-point loss to Iowa while Ball State's 3-2 mark features wins over USF and Indiana, but a 45-43 loss last week to Kent State.
Northern Illinois won 35-23. The computer won SU, won ATS.

EASTERN MICHIGAN by 2.32 over Kent State (-1) - I am more than a little surprised by the computer. EMU is 0-4 and Kent State is 3-1. This is the first home game this season against an FBS opponent for the Eagles.
Kent State won 41-14. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Mississippi State by 8.17 over KENTUCKY (-14.5) - The opening line had me scratching my head. Apparently I wasn't alone as the spread moved quickly to Mississippi State (-10) so this is actually becomes an "Easy Pickins'" game. The computer has the Bulldogs (4-0) ranked 26th this week. The Wildcats (1-4) are No. 104.
Mississippi State won 27-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Virginia Tech by 3.93 over NORTH CAROLINA (-2) - The Hokies had a 13-game winning streak at opponents venues before losing earlier this year to Pitt. Still, Virginia Tech is 27-5 in ACC road games since entering the league in 2004 and hasn't lost a conference road opener since 1962 when it was a member of the Southern Conference.
North Carolina won 48-34. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

FLORIDA by 4.37 over Lsu (-2.5) - For those who wondered if Will Muschamp would be the guy to get Florida back in a national title hunt, the answer will come this Saturday. A win over LSU would obviously propel the Gators into the forefront of the national conversation. In his first season, Muschamp didn't post a single victory over a team that finished with a winning record.
Florida won 14-6. The computer won SU, won ATS.

New Mexico State by 4.25 over IDAHO - Idaho has lost 8 straight games and 14 of its last 15. NMSU snapped a 3-game skid to the Vandals with their victory last year in Las Cruces. Idaho has scored just 67 points in 5 games and over half of those (37) came in the 40-37 overtime loss to Wyoming.
Idaho won 26-18. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Rice by 7.08 over MEMPHIS (-4) - Memphis is on an 8-game losing streak and has a total of 5 wins in 3+ seasons. Rice won last year's meeting 28-6.
Memphis won 14-10. The computer lost SU, won ATS.

Nebraska by 7.90 over OHIO STATE - Nebraska won 34-27 in Lincoln last year in a game marked just the 3rd all-time meeting of the two football powerhouses and the first since the Buckeyes won both installments of a home-and-home series in 1955-1956.
Ohio State won 63-38. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.


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