Friday, September 30
BYU (-13.5) by 11.64 over Utah State - Utah State snapped a 10-game losing streak in the series with last year's 31-16 win. BYU has been offensive-challenged, thus its two victories over Ole Miss and UCF have been by a total of 8 points and its home loss to Utah was by 44. Utah State is coached by former Utah DC Gary Andersen who is in his 3rd season in Logan.
BYU won 27-24. The computer won SU, won ATS.
Saturday, October 1
ARMY (-11) by 4.27 over Tulane - The computer is 2-2 SU and ATS with the Black Knights. It's 3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS with the Green Wave with its only miss coming in the upset blowout of UAB in Birmingham. The all-time series is 9-8-1 in favor of Tulane and the Green Wave won 17-16 the last time the game was played at West Point two years ago, but Army has won 3 of the last 4 meetings overall. The Black Knights rank 100th in total defense and 95th in scoring offense.
Army won 45-6. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-10.5) by 9.43 over Auburn - Overall, Auburn leads the sparingly played series 8-1-1 with the only Gamecocks victory coming in 1933, but they never met from 1934 through 1995 and have only played 6 times since then with the Tigers winning all 6. Auburn swept South Carolina last year, winning the regular season game 35-27 and the conference championship game 56-17. Those were the first meetings between these schools since 2006. The computer's PMOV (projected margin of victory) has only changed by 0.09 points since the preseason. The computer is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS with the Gamecocks. It's 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS with the Tigers.
Auburn won 16-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
BOISE STATE (-29) by 20.23 over Nevada - Boise State hasn't defeated any team this year by more than 25 points. The last 4 games in this rivalry have been decided by no more than 11 points after a 7-meeting string of blowouts which the Broncos won by 35 points or more. Boise State will be seeking to avenge last year's upset loss in Reno that squashed its BCS Championship game hopes. The former WAC rivals finished the year as co-champions of that conference, along with Hawaii. Nevada has clearly missed the presence of graduated QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua. However, Mike Ball ranks 12th nationally in place of Taua and ripped Texas Tech for 139 yards last week in a heartbreaking 35-34 fall-from-ahead loss. Cody Fajardo could replace Tyler Lantrip at QB. Fajardo was 4-of-6 for 59 yards and a TD last week while adding 139 rushing yards and 2 TD's. Lantrip has just 122 yards rushing and O TD's in 3 games, eliminating the dual threat that made it so difficult to defend Kaepernick.
Boise State won 30-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.
WEST VIRGINIA (-21) by 16.37 over Bowling Green - The computer's PMOV (projected margin of victory) has dropped over 7 points on this game since the preseason. The Falcons were projected to go 1-11, but have won 3 of their first 4 games as opponents Idaho and Miami (O.), in particular, haven't lived up to the computer's expectations. BGSU's lone loss was a 1-point setback to a much-improved Wyoming team. QB Matt Schilz leads the nation in TD passes with 14 and has thrown just 4 INT's. West Virginia ranks 34th in pass defense, 37th in total defense and 24th in total offense. The Falcons rank 22nd in total defense and 21st in total offense.
West Virginia won 55-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
TENNESSEE (-27.5) by 20.68 over Buffalo - The computer's projected margin has been pretty much on the money with the both of these schools so far this year and it has trended slightly in the Bulls' favor.
Tennessee won 41-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
CONNECTICUT (-8) by 2.69 over Western Michigan - UConn has been a major disappointment in Paul Pasqualoni's first season as head coach, though the defense has been solid. Western Michigan nearly pulled off the upset of unbeaten Illinois last week.
Western Michigan won 38-31. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
North Carolina (-8) by 3.36 over EAST CAROLINA - The computer is a combined 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS with these teams in 2011.
North Carolina won 35-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
ILLINOIS (-7) by 3.01 over Northwestern - The computer is undefeated SU and ATS with the Illini, but is only 1-2 SU and 1-1 ATS with the Wildcats as they've been playing without Dan Persa at QB. That is set to change this week as Persa is scheduled to return after rupturing his achilles tendon while throwing the game-winning pass against Iowa last November 13.
Illinois won 38-35. The computer won SU, won ATS.
LOUISVILLE (-11) by 7.60 over Marshall - Marshall has won all 3 meetings since 1987 but the teams haven't played since a 38-15 Herd win in the 2002 GMAC Bowl. The computer is 3-1 SU and ATS with Marshall It's 2-1 SU and 1-1 ATS with the Cards, losing only the Kentucky game in which it forecasted the rival Wildcats to win by more than a TD (Louisville won 24-17).
Marshall won 17-13. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
Notre Dame (-14.5) by 7.69 over PURDUE - 14.5 is expecting a lot of the Irish for a rivalry game on the road, especially when three of their four games this season have been decided by 4 points or less and they are only carrying a 2-2 record into West Lafayette. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 54-26-2, but Purdue is 4-3 in the last 7 meetings at home.
Notre Dame won 38-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
SOUTHERN MISS (-14.5) by 11.83 over Rice - The computer is a combined 6-1 SU with these teams and 4-2 ATS. The Owls are 2-0 all-time vs. the Golden Eagles with the only meetings occurring in 2007 and 2008.
Southern Miss won 48-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.