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9/27/12-9/29/12


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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2011 Regular Season: 90-26 SU (.776), 63-53 ATS (.543)
2012 Regular Season: 29-10 SU (.744), 17-22 ATS (.436)
This Week: 6-2 SU (.750), 3-5 ATS (.375)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 27
Stanford (-7) by 8.76 over WASHINGTON - Stanford has won the last 4 meetings, and 6-of-7. With Andrew Luck at QB, the Cardinal won the last 3 by 20 points or more. Obviously, Stanford doesn't have Luck anymore so this basically falls to the question of whether you believe Stanford has enough talent to continue its domination of the Huskies. I believe that answer is "yes". So far, the computer is 12-4 ATS on PAC-12 North teams this year.
Washington won 17-13. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Saturday, September 29
Louisiana Tech (-2.5) by 7.20 over VIRGINIA - A bad year to schedule Louisiana Tech as a home cupcake. This team is all about offense (their defense rank is 119) and you will have to outscore them to beat them. UVa ranks 88th in total offense and 80th in total defense.
Louisiana Tech won 44-38. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MICHIGAN STATE (-1.5) by 12.31 over Ohio State - The Big Ten opener for both schools and a must-win for Michigan State. I like this game only because of the scant 1.5-point edge given to the Spartans which has since climbed to 3 since the opening.
Ohio State won 17-16. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

GEORGIA (-15.5) by 16.28 over Tennessee - Georgia doesn't have the horse to run with the big 'Dawgs.
Georgia won 51-44. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Florida State (-14) by 15.69 over USF - This game should be a 4-TD blowout as the 'Noles seek revenge for their 2009 home loss to the Bulls.
Florida State won 30-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

North Texas (-3.5) by 10.47 over FAU - The computer spread for this game has risen by nearly a full point since the preseason which usually serves as a good indicator about where each team is headed.
North Texas won 20-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.

EAST CAROLINA (-4) by 6.71 over Utep - UTEP is a notoriously terrible road team with wins in just 4 of its last 22 journeys away from home, and those wins all came against some of the worst college football teams of all time - New Mexico, New Mexico State (twice) and Tulane. This is East Carolina's first home game this season vs. a Bowl Subdivision team.
East Carolina won 28-18. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NEBRASKA (-11.5) by 16.79 over Wisconsin - Another Big Ten opener. The result of this one should be somewhere between the 11.5-point line and 16.79-point computer pick.
Nebraska won 30-27. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2011 Regular Season: 67-19 SU (.779), 40-46 ATS (.465)
2012 Regular Season: 25-5 SU (.833), 20-10 ATS (.667)
This Week: 5-0 SU (1.000), 3-2 ATS (.600)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 29
Miami, Ohio (-9.5) by 9.37 over AKRON - A much improved Zips team under Terry Bowden could actually win this game. The computer had Miami by 21+ in the preseason so the momentum of this game has shifted dramatically toward Akron.
Miami, Ohio won 56-49. The computer won SU, won ATS.

PURDUE (-18) by 10.34 over Marshall - I see Marshall keeping this game close enough to keep the home crowd nervous, but I still expect an eventual 14 to 17-point win by the B'makers.
Purdue won 51-41. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Missouri (-1.5) by 0.61 over UCF - The computer isn't sure that Missouri can win this game. The Tigers have dropped from being a 4.05-point computer pick in the preseason.
Missouri won 21-16. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

Boise State (-30) by 23.66 over NEW MEXICO - New head coach Bob Davie pocketed his first big win this past weekend by defeating rival New Mexico State on the road and the Lobos already have more victories this season (2) than in any of the past three. Now he gets his first big home game against an offensively deficient Boise State team. No way am I suggesting the Lobos can win, but under 30 is do-able.
Boise State on 32-29. The computer won SU, won ATS.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-12) by 9.08 over Central Michigan - The Chippewas have been a thorn in the Huskies' side with wins in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Northern Illinois won 55-24. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2011 Regular Season: 24-37 SU (.393), 29-32 ATS (.475)
2012 Regular Season: 20-19 SU (.513), 21-18 ATS (.538)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 5-1 ATS (.833)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 29
KENT STATE by 2.05 over Ball State (-2.05) - This game is the definition of a pick 'em contest.
Kent State won 45-43. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Duke by 2.93 over WAKE FOREST (-3) - The Dukies have too much offense for Weak Forest. The Deacs rank 109th on defense and 121st against the run. They rank 103rd on offense. Duke is 49th on offense and 46th on defense.
Duke won 34-27. The computer won SU, won ATS.

N. C. State by 1.49 over MIAMI, FLA. (-3.5) - Miami has already outperformed the expectations of the computer which gave the 'Canes 2 wins all year. But N.C. State is following the computer's script to the letter, even though the team has yet to exercise its seemingly greater potential.
Miami won 44-37. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

San Jose State by 6.35 over NAVY (-1.5) - The strongest SJSU team we've seen in years visits the weakest Midshipmen crew that we've seen in a decade.
San Jose State won 12-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Western Kentucky by 4.58 over ARKANSAS STATE (-1.5) - The Hilltoppers are on fire. The Red Wolves' defense is suspect and barely survived a home game against lowly Memphis.
Western Kentucky won 26-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Utsa by 0.36 over NEW MEXICO STATE (-7) - The Aggies were unexpected losers at home to rival New Mexico this past Saturday. Larry Coker's Roadrunners are 4-0 against a weak slate, but riding the momentum that a 4-0 record can generate. UTSA won the season opener at South Alabama, handing the Jaguars their second-ever home defeat in the 3-year football history of that school.
UTSA won 35-14. The computer won SU, won ATS.


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