Thursday, September 25
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-17) by 6.02 over Appalachian State - The computer has moved Georgia Southern from a 1.93-point underdog to a 6.02-point favorite for a swing of almost 8 points in the Bulldogs' favor. Appalachian State has won the last 3 meetings, including 38-14 last year in Boone, and the Mountaineers lead the series overall, 16-12-1.
Georgia Southern won 34-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
Saturday, September 27
MIAMI, FLA. (-5.5) by 2.46 over Duke - The computer margin for Miami has dropped from 8.74 in the preseason to 2.46, putting the trend line in favor of Duke to win outright by 3-4 points. As Dave Congrove points out in his weekly preview article, Miami only has 2 wins vs. Power 5 conference schools in its last 7 tries. Duke won last year's meeting in Durham, 48-30, to snap a 9-game losing streak in the series.
Miami won 22-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
South Alabama (-8) by 5.29 over IDAHO - The Jaguars have scored a total of 9 points in their last two games, including a 28-6 loss last week to Georgia Southern.
South Alabama won 34-10. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
LSU (-47) by 38.79 over New Mexico State - LSU has scored more than 47 points just 5 times against FBS schools in the last 6+ seasons, so a 47-point victory seems unlikely.
LSU won 63-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
MISSISSIPPI (-24) by 20.19 over Memphis - Memphis is averaging 498 yards per game and 44.7 points. This game has been decided by more than 24 points just twice out of the 25 games played since 1981.
Mississippi won 24-3. The computer won SU, won ATS.
MICHIGAN (-7) by 0.01 over Minnesota - The computer has Michigan by 1/100th of a point and the preseason spread was just 74/100ths. The way Michigan has been playing, Minnesota could easily pull off the outright win, something it hasn't done since 2005 and has managed only twice since 1978.
Minnesota won 30-14. The computer lost SU, won ATS.
SAN DIEGO STATE (-16) by 6.51 over Unlv - A 16-point line seems a bit of a stretch for a game in which neither school has beaten a FBS opponent this season.
San Diego State won 34-17. The computer won SU, lost ATS.
TULSA (-4) by 2.18 over Texas State - I'm surprised Texas State isn't the outright favorite. The Bobcats nearly pulled off the win at Illinois this past weekend and only lost to Navy by 14. Tulsa was a 9.52-point computer favorite in the preseason and that margin has dropped by more than a touchdown. The computer trend line says Bobcats win straight up by 5.
Texas State won 37-34 in 3 OT's. The computer lost SU, won ATS.