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9/5/13-9/7/13


FEATURE PICKS ARCHIVES
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Each week, Mike Mitchell examines the computer's picks and selects those which he believes have the best chance of being correct. Lines in parenthesis are the opening lines as reported at docsports.com. Later lines are used in the event of a "pick 'em" opening. The Congrove Computer Rankings' pick is shown outside the parenthesis. The HOME TEAM is in CAPS. You can research the computer's performance with each team and conference with the Team-By-Team Picks Tracking data. An explanation of how the computer's SU and ATS wins and losses are scored can be found at Weekly Picks Help.


EASY PICKINS:
The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.
2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 14-1 SU (.933), 11-4 ATS (.733)
This Week: 6-1 SU (.857), 4-3 ATS (.571)
PAST RECORDS

Thursday, September 5
EAST CAROLINA (-14.5) by 15.61 over Fau - The Owls make their Conference USA debut, but it won't be pretty as the Pirates pack too much offense for FAU to keep up.
East Carolina won 31-13. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Friday, September 6
Ucf (-23) by 26.89 over FIU - The talent level doesn't compare. Maryland beat the Panthers by 33 last week and the computer ranks UCF 14 power points above the Terps.
UCF won 38-0. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Saturday, September 7
Utah State (-6.5) by 16.74 over AIR FORCE - These teams haven't met since 1969. The Aggies were an 18-point preseason computer favorite and 1 game hasn't changed the expected outcome by much. The AFA is forecasted to have a down year while Utah State is picked to win the Mountain West's Mountain Division title. This is the MWC debut for WAC refugee Utah State.
Utah State won 52-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

Texas (-3.5) by 5.81 over BYU - BYU couldn't even at Virginia which is certainly no powerhouse. Forget the 1 -point loss at Texas 2 years ago as this is vastly improved Longhorn team that the computer forecasts as a top contender for the BCS title.
BYU won 40-21. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

WYOMING (-24) by 26.13 over Idaho - Wyoming only won by 3 at Moscow last year, but the Cowboys opened this season with a near upset win at Nebraska. Idaho opened their 2013 campaign with a 40-6 loss at North Texas.
Wyoming won 42-10. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MICHIGAN STATE (-17.5) by 28.79 over Usf - USF was pounded 53-21 at home by FCS member McNeese State. 'nough said.
Michigan State won 21-6. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OKLAHOMA (-20.5) by 25.60 over West Virginia - It was a 1-point shootout win for the Sooners at WVU last year, but the Mountaineers don't come close in fire power this season. West Virginia barely escaped William & Mary in the opener.
Oklahoma won 16-7. The computer won SU, lost ATS.


HOLD YOUR HORSES:
The computer likes the favorite, but by fewer points than the oddsmakers.
2012 Regular Season: 52-17 SU (.754, 42-27 ATS (.609)
2013 Regular Season: 12-1 SU (.923), 5-8 ATS (.385)
This Week: 5-1 SU (.833), 3-3 ATS (.500)
PAST RECORDS

Saturday, September 7
Duke (-7.5) by 1.83 over MEMPHIS - Memphis was idle while Duke opened at home with a 45-0 win vs. FCS neighbor North Carolina Central. The Tigers return virtually every top skill position player from last year's team that gained confidence by closing their campaign with 3 straight wins.
Duke won 28-14. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

NORTH CAROLINA (-21.5) by 8.96 over Middle Tennessee - The discrepancy between Vegas and the computer is just too large to ignore. I can see MTSU keeping this to an 8- to 15-point ballgame.
North Carolina won 40-20. The computer won SU, won ATS.

MISSOURI (-10) by 1.87 over Toledo - The computer was right last week when it said the Rockets would play Florida tougher than expected, and Missouri isn't Florida.
Missouri won 38-23. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

OHIO (-8) by 4.99 over North Texas - I wouldn't be surprised by an outright UNT win.
Ohio won 27-21. The computer won SU, won ATS.

TENNESSEE (-13.5) by 7.04 over Western Kentucky - Both teams had 1 SEC win a year ago (Kentucky).
Tennessee won 52-20. The computer won SU, lost ATS.

USC (-21) by 17.15 over Washington State - The Trojans might have lost at Hawaii last week if the Rainbow Warriors hadn't tossed 4 interceptions. the Cougars are already road-tested, falling 31-24 at Auburn.
Washington State won 10-7. The computer lost SU, won ATS.


UPSETS:
The computer likes the underdog as the outright winner. I don't select the games in this category. Instead, we list every upset projected by the computer.
2012 Regular Season: 36-50 SU (.419), 42-44 ATS (.488)
2013 Regular Season: 6-8 SU (.429), 9-5 ATS (.643)
This Week: 1-3 SU (.250), 1-3 ATS (.250)
PAST RECORDS

Friday, September 6
Wake Forest by 4.86 over BOSTON COLLEGE (-5) - BC struggled past FCS member Villanova while Wake opened with an equally unimpressive win over the Presbyterian Blue Hose. The Demon Deacons have won the last two meetings by 8 and 14 points, respectively.
Boston College won 24-10. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Arkansas State by 1.86 over AUBURN (-6) - Not sure I can get onboard with this one. Auburn is still getting hurt in the computer numbers by last season's performance. Not saying an Arkansas State win isn't possible - just not probable.
Auburn won 38-9. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

Notre Dame by 7.28 over MICHIGAN (-3) - The computer has the Irish as BCS title contenders and Michigan as a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team.
Michigan won 41-30. The computer lost SU, lost ATS.

New Mexico by 0.08 over UTEP (-7) - Apparently this game is the epitome of a toss-up. UTEP was a 0.004-point preseason computer pick, but the Miners didn't play last week while the computer correctly forecasted New Mexico's home loss to UTSA.
New Mexico won 42-35 in OT. The computer won SU, won ATS.


ODDS/PICKS
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