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Computer Rankings And National Titles


National Champion Prediction: Florida
Predicted Participants (BCS Championship): Florida (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (13-0)
Actual Participants (BCS Championship): Alabama (13-0) vs. Texas (13-0)
Computer Line: Texas by 6.93
Final: Alabama 37, Texas 21
National Champ: Alabama
Comment: Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, Texas and TCU all made it through the regular season unscathed. Florida fell to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, Cincinnati was whipped by Florida in the Sugar Bowl, Boise State defeated TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, and Alabama knocked off Texas for the BCS title. That left just Alabama and Boise State as the only remaining unbeaten teams.

The Congrove Computer Rankings' had forecasted a BCS Championship rematch of Florida and Oklahoma. The Gators nearly made it, but the Sooners got off to a rough start when reigning Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford was injured in the first game of the season. He returned to play 5 weeks later against Baylor, but was reinjured on the second series in the following week's 16-13 loss to Texas and never played again as Oklahoma stumbled to an 8-5 finish.

In the BCS Championship game, Texas lost QB Colt McCoy on its first offensive series and he never returned in the Longhorns' 37-21 loss to the Crimson Tide. Alabama's victory gave the SEC its 4th straight BCS title. SEC teams have claimed 6 BCS titles in the game's 12 years of existence and have never lost in a BCS Championship game.

The preseason forecast had the actual BCS title game participants ranked 4th (Texas) and 6th (Alabama). 'Bama was a preseason underdog to Florida in the SEC title game. The Longhorns were a mere 0.93-point preseason underdog to Oklahoma in their regular season meeting.

For the first time ever, two non-automatic qualifying schools were invited to BCS bowls. Unfortunately, TCU and Boise State were paired together in the Fiesta Bowl, stripping them of the opportunity to prove their mettle against teams from the so-called "Big 6" conferences (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, PAC-10 and SEC).

Cincinnati completed the regular season undefeated, then lost head coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame prior to its Sugar Bowl match with Florida and was blown out 51-24. Before the game, Gator head coach Urban Meyer announced he was retiring before changing his mind and opting for an indefinite leave of absence.

See: 2009 Final Computer Rankings

National Champion Prediction: Boise State
Predicted Participants (BCS Championship): Boise State (12-0) vs. Texas (13-0)
Actual Participants (BCS Championship): Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0)
Computer Line: Oregon by 5.50
Final: Auburn 22, Oregon 19
National Champ: Auburn (Coaches Poll, AP Poll)
TCU (Congrove Computer Rankings)
Comment: The BCS Championship game participants, Auburn and Oregon, joined TCU as the only teams that were still unbeaten after all the dust had settled on the 2010 season. Auburn defeated Oregon 22-19 on a 19-yard field goal by Wes Byrum as time expired, and TCU downed Wisconsin (11-1) by a 21-19 count in the Rose Bowl when a 2-point conversion pass was batted down with 2 minutes to play.

The computer ranked TCU No. 1. The Horned Frogs went 13-0 while allowing a total of 156 points all season. TCU ranked No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. The Horned Frogs also finished 10th in rushing offense and 4th in scoring.

Meanwhile, Auburn gave the SEC its 5th straight BCS title, and its 7th crown in the BCS's 13 years of existence. An SEC team has never lost in a BCS Championship game.

The Congrove Computer Rankings' had forecasted a BCS Championship matchup of Boise State and Texas. The Broncos went 12-1 and were in the hunt until November 26 when they lost 34-31 in overtime at a Nevada team that finished 13-1. On the other hand, Texas' 2010 season was an unmitigated disaster as its roster of 4 and 5-star recruits won just 5 games.

No major magazines or websites had Auburn preseason ranked higher than 15th (Phil Steele) while Oregon's highest preseason rank came from the Congrove Computer Rankings which had the Ducks at No. 6.

See: 2010 Final Computer Rankings

National Champion Prediction: Oklahoma
Predicted Participants (BCS Championship): Alabama (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (12-0)
Actual Participants (BCS Championship): Alabama (11-1) vs. LSU (13-0)
Computer Line: LSU by 4.16
Final: Alabama 21, LSU 0
National Champ: Alabama (Coaches Poll, AP Poll)
LSU (Congrove Computer Rankings)
Comment: For the first time in history two teams from the same conference played for the national title and Alabama avenged a regular season 9-6 overtime loss at home by shutting out the LSU 21-0 in the BCS Championship game. However, the final CCR Top 120 still had LSU still ranked No. 1 after playing a slate of teams that averaged 3.29 points more powerful than the schedule faced by the Crimson Tide.

Alabama didn't win its division and couldn't play for the SEC title. LSU pounded Georgia 42-10 in the SEC Championship game.

Dave Congrove, developer of the rankings that just finished their 19th season, said "Can we make it 2-out-of-3 and settle this thing for good? We've had one game at Alabama, one at a neutral site, and now we need one at Baton Rouge."

Alabama was ranked 2nd by the computer, followed by Oklahoma State. The Cowboys entered the bowl season ranked No. 2 in the CCR Top 120 and, like Alabama, finished the season 12-1. The Tide jumped Oklahoma State on the basis of its 21-point win over a higher-ranked team. The Cowboys defeated then-No. 5 Stanford 41-38 in overtime in the Fiesta Bowl.

Oklahoma was 9th in the final computer rankings after knocking off Iowa 31-14 in the Insight Bowl to finish 10-3.

By default, the SEC won its 6th straight BCS title and its 8th in 14 BCS seasons. LSU became the first SEC team to ever lose in a BCS Championship game.

See: 2011 Final Computer Rankings


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